Thursday, 13 February 2025

The first opinion polls of the year send a mighty wake-up call to the coalition government, but they are not the death knell some might think. Polls are always a snapshot in time, subject to particular influences at the time they were taken. A more accurate assessment emerges from the trends that they disclose over time, rather than the result of any one individual poll.

In this regard, a rolling average of the polls shows that while an election held today would be extremely close, the coalition government is still marginally ahead of the Opposition bloc. However, that lead has been reducing steadily. While for most of 2024 the difference between the two blocs did not move much since the 2023 election, National’s support has fallen sharply since September/October, with Labour’s increasing, although not as sharply.

Nevertheless, the National-led coalition is more precariously positioned at present than each of the last two Labour-led governments were at similar stages in the previous two Parliaments. For example, at the equivalent point in in 2019, the Labour-led coalition was leading the centre right bloc by almost 12 percentage points. And at the same point in the last Parliamentary term, in 2022, the Labour-led bloc still had a substantial lead over National and its allies.

Much can of course change between now and election day. By the start of 2019, National was beginning to open a small lead over Labour, only to see that completely obliterated by the onset of Covid19, and Labour’s historic election landslide later that year. Similarly, in 2022 Labour’s comfortable lead over National waned and fell away altogether during the year. Labour’s handling of Covid19 was no longer an asset and was turning people off in droves, leading to the government’s defeat in 2023.

Therefore, it is far too soon to draw firm conclusions about the implications of the parties’ current ratings for the 2026 election outcome. However, some general observations can be made, based on the figures.

The first is that unlike any other lead party of government under MMP, National has no electoral fat to draw upon when times get tough. Its 38% party vote share at the last election – far lower than the vote share of the Key and Ardern governments when they were first elected – means it has no reservoir of support to draw upon.

Its current polling average of just under 33% of the party vote is at least ten percentage points below what it should be for the party to be confident of re-election in two years’ time. Of arguably more concern for the government is that National does not yet appear to have a strategy for growing its vote share to this extent.

At the same time, the situation is not all that rosy for Labour. The polling average shows its vote share has grown by only about three percentage points in the last six months, leaving it still well below the level of support it would need to lead a government after the next election.

Of the minor parties, support for the Greens and ACT has been relatively stable since the last election. Both are on average rating less than a percentage point higher than at the election. Although one recent poll showed New Zealand First’s support hovering around the 5% party vote threshold level, its support on average has not moved from the 6.6% party vote level it recorded on election day. Given New Zealand First’s historic propensity to perform far better at election time than it ever does in opinion polls during a Parliamentary term, that leaves it in a comfortable position at present.

Te Pāti Māori looks to have more than doubled its party vote support since last year’s election – to around 5.4% according to the latest polling averages. But it is unlikely to see this rise in support translate into a significant increase in its number of seats at the next election. This is because all its seats are electorate seats. If it holds all these seats at the next election and wins around 5.4% of the party vote as current polls suggest, it would still only be entitled to the six electorate seats.

This creates a potential problem for Labour should it be in a position to form a government after the next election. Most of the new votes Te Pāti Māori could attract will likely have come from Labour, given Māori voters’ historic links to the Labour Party, but the return in terms of seats won for the centre left bloc may not be as great as it might be had those voters stayed loyal to Labour.

A further complication for Labour is that Te Pāti Māori is almost certain to make policy demands – like the establishment of an independent Treaty of Waitangi Commissioner with the power to veto government actions about the Treaty – that Labour will find difficult to accept in whole or part,  without risking alienating conservative elements of its own core constituency. Hipkins’ vacillation on the issue demonstrates Labour’s problem: it cannot afford to be too dismissive of Te Pāti Māori’s demands because it is unlikely to be able to form a government without them, but, if it is too agreeable, it risks not getting enough votes of its own to be in a government-forming position.

While ACT and the Greens have uncompromisingly nailed their colours to the National and Labour masts respectively, New Zealand First has been somewhat more ambivalent about its options. At this stage, however, there appears to still be too much bad blood between New Zealand First and Labour, following the experience of the 2017-2020 coalition, to see a Labour-led government involving New Zealand First as a viable option.

All this suggests that the next election is still the National-led coalition’s to lose. However, more antics of the type seen from David Seymour of late could hasten that process.

 

Thursday, 6 February 2025

From the Prime Minister’s state of the nation speech onwards National has made it very clear that its unrelenting focus this year will be on catching the economic growth wave. It clearly hopes that this, along with Reserve Bank-engineered falling interest rates and, unless Donald Trump gets too much in the way, steadily falling inflation, will both help it to overcome stubbornly high unemployment rates and give the “squeezed middle” sufficient incentive to vote National once again at next year’s election.

But despite the constant talk about going for growth, National has so far revealed very little about specifically how it intends to achieve that. The closest any Minister has come to spelling out a plan has been New Zealand First Resources Minister Shane Jones with his commitment to more mineral exploration. While there is arguably considerable potential value in exploiting some of the country’s mineral reserves, that policy alone is unlikely to satisfy National’s growth objectives, even if all the conservation and environmental issues involved with more mining can ever be resolved.

In any case, New Zealand should have long learnt through bitter experience that governments picking winners in whatever sector is not a viable long-term way to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. Businesses seeking to invest in New Zealand, be they local or foreign, need assurance about the long-term investment and business environment before they commit to the economy in a way that will foster growth.

That is where the “bold” package of tax reform Finance and Economic Growth Minister Willis is mooting for this year’s Budget becomes critical. New Zealand’s current business tax rates are no longer competitive nor conducive to encouraging new business to locate here, or existing export businesses to stay.

Our current corporate tax rate of 28 cents in the dollar is out of line with countries we like to imitate where we can – in Ireland the corporate tax rate is 12.5%, and it is 17% in Singapore. Australia has a two-tier system of 25% for companies with a turnover of less than $A50 million, and 30% for those above that figure. In the United States the federal corporate tax rate is currently 21% although President Trump has pledged to reduce that to 15%. China’s corporate tax rate is 25%, with lower rates for some low-profit companies.

New Zealand’s current 28% corporate tax rate was set back in 2011, when I was Minister of Revenue. I had also overseen an earlier review, in 2007, which had led to the rate being reduced from 33% to 30% in that year’s Budget. However, prior to that, the last time corporate taxes had been reviewed was nearly twenty years earlier in 1988, following the 1987 Sharemarket Crash.

Only two business tax reductions in the last 36 years, and the last one nearly 14 years ago, at a time of considerable change and turmoil not only shows how badly New Zealand has lagged other countries, especially at a time when the international movement of capital and technology has never been more rapid. It also shows the extent to which successive New Zealand governments have failed to appreciate the role competitive corporate tax rates can play in attracting and retaining investment and jobs.  Without investment and jobs, and the wealth they create, it is increasingly difficult for modern societies like ours to fulfil all the responsibilities citizens expect.

So, Nicola Willis has a lot of catching up to do to both restore competitiveness in New Zealand’s corporate tax rates, and to stimulate the long-term investment that should flow from that. There will almost certainly be a significant short-term revenue loss from reducing corporate tax rates to a more competitive level. Part of her bold strategy will be having to absorb this, at least until the gains from the new rates start to flow in terms of new investment. Whatever she does, she must resist the temptation to try to offset potential revenue losses by new or additional taxes elsewhere that will nullify the benefits of lowering corporate taxes.

And should she make a change in this year’s Budget, she needs to then commit to regular reviews – say five yearly – to ensure that the new rates remain internationally attractive and competitive. Ireland and Singapore have shown that once it is underway, the bandwagon effect of competitive corporate tax rates gathers momentum exponentially, and the gains quickly flow.

Many have dismissed Prime Minister Luxon’s “growth” as just rhetoric so far, more about deflecting criticism at the start of the new political year of the government’s performance to date. Willis’ proclamation she is prepared to be “bold” offers not only the hope that she understands the need to reform our corporate tax rate, but also that she will now get on with the job of doing something about it. It will be to the country’s benefit.

Friday, 31 January 2025

 

The debate about privatising state assets has reared its head again, with calls by the ACT leader for the government to sell off more assets to help balance its books and the Prime Minister’s now typical vaguely ambiguous, non-committal response.

However, it is largely yesterday’s debate, more reminiscent of the late 1980s and early 1990s than today. At that time, there was a case for the government to divest itself of many assets and businesses that successive governments had acquired over time, only to see their performance fail to improve significantly under government ownership.

However, those days have gone. Many of those entities have been sold, but that process has been the subject of ongoing criticism because the sales themselves were botched.  The net result was often a worse business and service outcome. In some instances – railways and Air New Zealand, for example – a subsequent government has had to buy back the assets to prevent their total collapse.

In any case, as many analysts, including Sir John Key, have pointed out, there are not that many assets remaining that it would appropriate to sell in part or in whole, and that the economic impact of doing so is unlikely to be substantial. So, all we are really left with is what Sir Michael Cullen would have described as an “ideological burp” from the ACT Party.

However, that is not to say that there is not a strong case for considering the performance of some of the government’s largest business assets. That performance can certainly be improved.

Housing is a good example. There has long been a tradition, famously initiated by the first Labour Government in 1938, of comprehensive public housing provision by the state to help people in need. Today, the government’s housing agency, Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, owns around 72,000 rental properties across New Zealand. It is the country’s largest landlord. In addition, local authorities own around 14,000 rental properties. Taken together, central and local government agencies provide rental accommodation for around 400,000 people.

But the system is not without substantial problems. Although the waiting list for public housing has been declining, Ministry of Social Development figures still show more than 22,000 people waiting an average 344 days to get into public housing. Differing eligibility criteria between Kāinga Ora housing and local authority housing mean the situation is uneven across the country. Because of those variable standards, the quality of accommodation provided is also often uneven and not well-suited to the needs of tenants.

The original premise of state housing was that it would transitory, to help people through difficult circumstances. That has been long lost sight of. Concessional rental rates and non-fixed-term tenancies mean that for many tenants public housing has become a long-term way of life, rather than a transition, often shutting out deserving cases on the waiting list.

Maintenance of the housing stock has been a perennial problem, leading previous governments and councils to sell properties, rather than invest in their upgrading. Successive governments have sold more than 31,000 state houses in recent years. On the other hand, more than 16,000 new houses have been added to the government’s stock since 2017, and a further almost 2,700 are planned to be built over the next eighteen months, with 3,000 existing homes being upgraded. Even so, total public housing stock is still declining.

All this raises the question of whether there is a better way for managing the country’s under-pressure central and local government housing stock more consistently and even-handedly. Consideration should be given to bringing the entire central government and local government public housing stock under onje organisation – a revamped Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities. The new Kāinga Ora could then be more sharply focused as a property management company. It would be required to utilise the skills and expertise of the private sector home construction companies, advertising the homes of one’s dreams on television every night, to help better manage the existing stock and plan the future development of public housing in New Zealand.

This is not a new idea, even if it has fallen into disuse in recent years – it was, after all, a partnership between Fletcher Construction and the first Labour Government that enabled the design and building of the state housing programme from the late 1930s.

The same model of involving the private sector in the operation, management and upgrading of government property could equally be applied to other areas where the government is struggling to manage and maintain substantial property portfolios – schools and hospitals, for example. Here again, the government could establish a separate property management company, drawing on relevant private sector asset management expertise to maximise the government’s return on its health and education assets and improve overall economic performance.

The focus on this new entity would be on the buildings and would exclude the delivery of health and education services and staffing so as not to compromise the continued public ownership of those services. It would be solely about managing public assets better.

Discussion around these concepts, and how they could be applied to the contemporary public benefit, appeal as far more relevant than reverting to yesterday’s ideological prescriptions the way the ACT Party is.  

Thursday, 23 January 2025

This week, the rituals that herald the start of each Parliamentary year begin.

Both the major parties are holding their traditional two-day start-of-year Caucus retreats. National is meeting in Hamilton and Labour is in Palmerston North. Caucus retreats rarely yield anything of value but are useful mechanisms for demonstrating Party bonhomie and outward unity, especially after tough times like a Cabinet reshuffle, or a demoralising return to Opposition after years in government. The overriding impression both parties will want to leave after their retreats is that they are fired up, confident and ready to face the challenges of the political year which begins in earnest when Parliament resumes next week.

But before too much of the hot air generated at the retreats fades away, the parties will dutifully trek to Ratana Pā for the commemoration services this weekend of the 152nd anniversary of the birth of Tahupōtiki Wiremu Rātana, founder of the Rātana Church and political movement. Again, the process follows a set ritual – the separate formal welcome of the government and opposition parties onto the marae, followed by the often-frank speeches on the paepae, refreshments and the farewell.

When Parliament resumes next week, the first item of business will be the presentation of the Prime Minister’s Statement, which is supposed to set out the broad thrust of the government’s legislative plans for the year ahead. That is followed by a debate, lasting up to 13 hours, and spread over several days, ostensibly on the Statement’s contents, but wide-ranging over any aspect of the government’s performance, and other matters besides.

That process will be more drawn out this year because after resuming next week, earlier than in recent years, Parliament will go into a one week recess the following week to allow for the annual Waitangi Day Commemorations to take place.

At the end of the debate on the Prime Minister’s Statement, there will be the first vote of confidence of the year, which the government will need to win to continue in office. Then, both the House and the select committees can settle into their respective work patterns for the year ahead. As this is the second year of the government’s term it is also likely to be its busiest. Last year was about a new government settling into its work and developing the legislation necessary to give effect to its policy programme. Next year will be about tidying up loose ends and battening down the hatches before the election, due sometime in the latter quarter of the year.

This year will also be the time when Members of Parliament start to think about their futures and whether they wish to seek a further term at next year’s election. Typically, around a quarter to as third of Parliament stands down (either voluntarily or involuntarily) at each election. It will therefore not be unexpected to start to see a stream of upcoming retirements announced from around the middle of the year.

There is an added complication this year. In March, the Representation Commission is due to release draft new electorate boundaries for the 2026 election for public consultation. They will be finalised by August. The law currently fixes the number of electorates in the South Island at 16. However, this year because of the increase in the South Island’s population recorded in the 2023 Census, the number of North Island electorate seats will be reduced by one to ensure North Island electorates remain approximately the same population size as their South Island counterparts.

There has been speculation that because of wider population changes in Wellington and Auckland either the Epsom or Ōhāriu seats may be abolished, which would have implications for both the sitting members for those electorates. In Wellington, the three existing electorates of Rongatai, Wellington Central and Ōhāriu are all under the new electorate population quota making it difficult to see how all three can be retained. It is a similar story in Auckland with Epsom and its near neighbours all below the new quota.

Whatever happens, there will be ramifications beyond the electorate eventually chosen for abolition, which nearby MPs will weigh up when deciding whether to stand again, unless of course they are able to flee to the safety of a good place on the party list. From the end of the coming year, all parties will be starting to reveal the new candidates they have attracted to run both in electorates and on the party list in 2026.

There are two other unusual features to watch for in the first half of 2025. Around the end of May, pursuant to the Coalition Agreement, David Seymour will replace Winston Peters as Deputy Prime Minister until the next election. While that transfer is expected to go smoothly, the interesting point to watch will be whether it leads to any change in the dynamic of relationships within the Coalition, particularly since Peters, with a clear eye to the next election, has promised to be more assertive in pursuing New Zealand First’s interests once freed of being Deputy Prime Minister.

Second, and over the same period, will be the select committee process regarding the Treaty Principles Bill. How that proceeds, both in terms of how the submissions eventually chosen to be heard by the committee are treated, and the nature of the evidence presented, will be extremely testing, even if the Bill remains headed for eventual defeat. Unless it is carefully and wisely managed, the process has the capacity to completely dominate and thereby derail much of the rest of the government’s programme.

Once those items have been dealt with, the second ritual aspect of the Parliamentary year – the procedures around the presentation of the Budget and the scrutiny and accountability processes associated with that – kick in and will see Parliament through until it rises just before next Christmas.

 

Thursday, 12 December 2024

As a turbulent political year draws to a close some observations can be made about the state of the various parties and some of their personnel.

Within the National Party, this year has seen the emergence of Chris Bishop as not just one of the government’s key Ministers, with a range of new initiatives across his various portfolios, but also the go-to person when things do not go to plan. In that regard, he looks set to reprise the role of Minister of Everything, pioneered by Sir Bill Birch during the Bolger government, and developed to the ultimate degree by Steven Joyce in the last National-led government.

Erica Stanford has been National’s best performing Minister during the year. She has always managed to appear competent and professional, and on top of her brief. At the same time, she has shown, with her handling of the Abuse in Care inquiry outcomes, that she has the appropriate levels of compassion when required to balance her cool competence. Judith Collins continues to be National’s quiet achiever across a varied range of portfolios, and never putting a foot wrong.

On the other hand, Shane Reti has been the biggest disappointment. He has failed to achieve any of the government’s commitments on improving the public health system, despite retaining the soothing and reassuring bedside manner expected of a doctor. He must surely be a leading candidate for demotion when the first Cabinet reshuffle occurs next year.

Chris Hipkins has been Labour’s most consistent and persistent performer throughout the year. His contributions have generally been sensible and thoughtful, although constrained by the policy time-warp his party seems to be entering. Against the odds, it is becoming more likely that he could lead Labour into the next election, although whether he can achieve victory remains another question altogether.

However, Hipkins has been handicapped throughout the year by the largely somnambulant performance of the rest of his colleagues, many of whom have been dormant since before the last election. Others would best serve Labour’s interests by staying asleep, altogether. (Wille Jackson’s consistently buffoonish rants, and Aysha Verrall’s supercilious smugness come to mind.)

During 2025, Labour will need to start to cull many of the time servers and deadwood wasting space on its backbenches to get in shape to be competitive at the 2026 election.

As ACT leader, David Seymour has enjoyed a good year. While other ACT Ministers – notably Karen Chhour – have impressed, Seymour’s persona, built around his unflinching commitment to the controversial Treaty Principles Bill has largely shaped the party’s image, although not led to any significant increase in potential voter support. His challenge will be to maintain the momentum he has generated, once the Treaty Principles Bill bites the dust next year, and his elevation to the position of Deputy Prime Minister around the same time should assist in that regard.

Winston Peters’ durability and political stamina has been remarkable, and his wiliness has been an asset for the government during its first year. Next May, he will step down from his third stint as Deputy Prime Minister, shortly after his 80th birthday. He says this will leave him plenty of time to campaign for New Zealand First’s re-election in 2026.

However, Shane Jones’ impatience to succeed Peters as party leader is beginning to show and may get in the way of any wish Peters has to lead New Zealand First into the next election. Jones is also no spring chicken and has made no secret of his interest in New Zealand First’s top job, whenever it should become vacant.

As far as the Green Party is concerned, this has been the year of Chloe Swarbrick. Through the most tragic and unexpected circumstances she has led the party through its most difficult year. Her drive and determination have sustained her thus far but maintaining that level of intensity over the next two years will be challenging. At the same time, she may need to curb her mounting tendency to appear to be talking down to people and hectoring them on policies the Greens feel passionately about.

Te Pati Māori has succeeded at becoming Parliament’s self-styled disruptor by making itself unpopular with everyone but its core constituency, which appears to be growing. This potentially creates a longer-term problem for Labour if it sees Te Pati Māori as a possible future partner in government. Labour could well consider it is becoming too hot to handle as a government partner, in much the same way as Helen Clark dismissed an earlier incarnation of the party as “the last cab off the rank” in 2005. On the other hand, Labour may have no path to government, other than with Te Pati Māori, although that may put at risk some of Labour’s more conservative support.

Finally, Parliament's best performer – as opposed to politician of the year – has been Speaker Gerry Brownlee who has performed his role with the patience, wisdom and dignity that critics might not previously expected of him.

That ends the observations this year. It is now time to wish everyone a happy Christmas and a rewarding 2025 ahead.

Wednesday, 4 December 2024

As the government begins its second year in office there has been much comment about the leadership style and tone of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

By his own admission he is a not a career politician. There have been occasions when that lack of political experience has shown. Much has been made of his corporate background, and his penchant for still speaking like a business leader (for example, referring to voters as customers in a recent interview, before correcting himself), and his personal wealth.

Most of this criticism is unfair, because in other ways, Luxon has proved himself to be a quick political learner. He defied most expectations at the time he became National’s leader in 2021 by transforming what was a disorganised rabble then into a viable government in waiting by 2023.

After Labour’s chaotic last three years in office after 2020, Luxon’s election commitment to get New Zealand “back on track” resonated with enough voters to make him Prime Minster after the shortest Parliamentary apprenticeship ever.

Nevertheless, commentators questioned whether he could make the transition from corporate chief executive to Prime Minister, especially when he launched a series of chief executive-style quarterly action plans.

In the first few months, it did not seem to matter. The government was getting on doing things, principally dismantling much of Labour’s legacy. They seemed to be working to a plan and to know what they were doing.

But then came the Budget and the apparent broken promise over funding new cancer drugs. Luxon had committed to funding these in the election campaign. There was surprise that Luxon had not seemed to appreciate the anger of those who felt betrayed by the lack of funding in the Budget.

Luxon moved quickly to correct the omission and eventually delivered a funding package which went well beyond National’s original promise. But to those who were affected it looked more like a hurried backtrack.

However, that was nothing compared to the furore over ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill. While Luxon is correct that such compromises are an inevitable part of MMP coalition government, he is under fire from all sides of the debate for his approach. To some he has been too weak, appearing mealy-mouthed by supporting the Bill’s introduction, but pledging to vote against it later. To others, he has been deliberately insensitive to the damage the Bill is causing to racial harmony in New Zealand. Recent disparaging comments about his leadership from both his coalition partners have not helped either.

The debate on the Treaty Principles Bill goes to the heart of Luxon’s leadership style and tone.  Despite his critics, he is content with the stand he has taken, resolute in his commitment that the government will vote the Bill down when it returns from the select committee next year. He does not appear too worried about what may happen in the meantime, because of his confidence in the ultimate outcome.

In many senses, the tension around the Treaty Principles Bill could have been managed better, or possibly defused slightly, had Luxon at any point given a considered speech about his view of the future direction of Crown/Māori relations, including the role and place of the Treaty. But that is not his style leading some to conclude he is not all that interested in the issue.

From the outset Luxon has been more focused on policy outcomes than reciting lofty policy intents so beloved by his immediate predecessors. That has served him well so far, but as the year has progressed, and the economy has not responded as positively as expected with rising unemployment and more people on benefits, it could be argued that the government needs to start painting a clearer picture about the country’s medium-term prospects and how these will be achieved.

At no stage since he became Prime Minister has Luxon delivered a major speech setting out the sort of country he wants to see New Zealand become over the next twenty years or so, and the various policy choices, over a range of issues, that we need to be taking to get there. It is hardly surprising therefore, given this lack of overall context, that as the tough times continue, more and more New Zealanders are feeling the country is heading in the wrong direction. Now is the time for the Prime Minister to set out a clear sense of direction for voters feeling uncertain about their futures.

Luxon’s mentor, Sir John Key, like Helen Clark before him, always portrayed a clear sense of purpose about what they wanted for New Zealand, which, whether one agreed with them or not, sustained their governments in the tough times, as well as the good ones. That cannot be said at present, which is why the current government is increasingly in danger of being regarded as directionless.

A narrative is beginning to emerge that the government is flinty faced and uncaring. If that view takes firm hold over the next few months, it may prove very difficult to dispel before the next election, no matter how the economy performs.

Luxon and his senior Ministers are clearly convinced they are on the right path to getting the country “back on track” and will likely stick to their task. But, as 2025 unfolds, it will be important to keep doubting New Zealanders onside.

That will be a critical test for Luxon's still developing – but quickly improving – political communication skills.

 

Thursday, 28 November 2024

Wellington’s controversial and embattled Mayor Tory Whanau deserves some political credit for the content of the $400 million savings package she steered through her fractious Council this week.

With one or two exceptions - most notably the Botanic Gardens' iconic Begonia House which is threatened with demolition - many of the pet projects that have divided councillors for so long have been saved, at least for now. The Mayor has even managed to protect her beloved plan to pedestrianise the city’s famous Golden Mile from Courtenay Place to Lambton Quay, thus preserving at least some of her Green credentials. Earlier, she had declared her Golden Mile project sacrosanct, at the same time as she was calling on every other councillor to set aside their own personal wish lists as they grappled with the city’s mounting financial problems.

However, while the Mayor can claim some credit for this week’s decisions, the Council still has a long way to go on its journey towards fiscal rectitude. The $360 to $400 million of savings projected in this week's decisions are still well short of the $530 million of potential savings identified by Council officers. Whether they will be enough to satisfy both the government's recently appointed Crown Observer and ultimately the Minister of Local Government remains to be seen. And those decisions still need to be confirmed by the full Council which has a remarkable track record of overturning committee recommendations on important financial decisions. It should be remembered it was the full Council that overturned the original decision to sell the Council's shareholding in Wellington International Airport which precipitated the current financial crisis over funding the city’s Long-term Plan. 

In many senses the Council’s task has only just begun, and much ground remains to be recovered before it is likely to be seen by both Crown Observer and the Minister as operating in a responsible and fiscally sustainable way. While the Mayor can feel some satisfaction at the limited progress to date, her fist-pumping "we've got this" comment at the end of the meeting was both gauche and foolishly premature, giving the chronic erratic unpredictability of her supporters on the Council.

The endangered Begonia House and the slavish determination to proceed with the Golden Mile project in their own way highlight why Mayor Whanau’s Council is so ridiculed. The Begonia House was gifted to the city in 1961 by the family of the industrialist Sir Walter Norwood. It has been a popular site for visitors and local people since then. However, the removal of carparking on nearby streets because of the Council’s obsession with installing cycleways had made the Begonia House more inaccessible, and the cafeteria business associated with it less viable. The Council’s solution, therefore, is that the Begonia House has had its day and should be demolished, arousing the ire of many Wellingtonians. In the view of the councillors supporting the Mayor, it is a symbol of Wellington’s past, out of step with the cycle and pedestrian friendly future they see for the city. The idea that the Begonia House should be handed over to private enterprise to run efficiently, and that more carparking should be provided to improve access to it, is complete anathema to their intentions.

The Mayor’s determination to proceed with her Golden Mile project, come hell or high water, is in a similar vein. At first glance the proposal to pedestrianise the Golden Mile, save for buses and cycles is an attractive one. But it has stirred up a hornet's nest amongst inner city businesses. Many are already struggling to regain customers after Covid19 and the long period of people working from home. On top of this there has been the general economic slowdown and the impact of public sector redundancies. Many businesses have already closed, while others are teetering on the brink. They fear the Golden Mile proposals will be the final straw. 

For its part, the Council has appeared singularly uninterested in their plight, sticking doggedly to its determination to rid the central city of cars to make it more pedestrian and cycle friendly, in line with its overall vision. The fact that the city’s existing character will likely be changed irreparably, at the cost of many long-standing businesses seems to matter little to Mayor Whanau and the tight,  out of their depth,  clique of councillors around her. All that matters to them is that the city will appear a little greener, even if it ends up a shell of its former self.

Still, for a Mayor for whom nearly everything has gone wrong in the last two years, this week’s Council decisions are a rare and welcome win, even if they are perpetuating the wrong direction the city has been heading in. But if they are confirmed when the Council finalises its long-term plan, they still offer little prospect of immediate relief to beleaguered ratepayers reeling from substantial rates hikes this year and the prospect of more to come. For them, two options remain: in the short-term there is the wishful hope that the Crown Observer will be able to install some sense of wise spending and financial discipline into the Council. However, the longer-term and far more likely option remains that voters, tired of the incompetent shenanigans, will resolve the issue for themselves when they vote in next year’s Mayoral and Council elections.