If success in politics is measured by practical achievements rather than the volume of noise made, James Shaw has been the Greens’ most successful politician yet.
His
unchallengeable legacy will be the zero-carbon legislation. Shaw knew that the
key to that progressing was not only persuading the then major party of
government, Labour, but far more importantly, the National Opposition, to
support his plans to ensure the policy momentum was maintained when a change of
government occurred. Shaw also understood that he needed at least tacit, if not
more active, support from the business community, and major greenhouse gas
producers like industry and agriculturalists.
To
that end, he skilfully steered New Zealand to a position where, following the
passage of the Climate Change Act in 2020 and the establishment of the Climate
Change Commission, the future direction of New Zealand’s climate change
response was broadly settled. Although there will be inevitable modifications
under future governments and as international circumstances change, the
approach established by Shaw will remain, at least for the foreseeable future.
In
a Newsroom Column in July 2022 – when Shaw’s co-leadership of the Greens was
under challenge – I speculated that he could decide to leave Parliament at the
2023 election (or shortly afterwards, if the government was defeated) and that
either a re-elected Labour-led government or an incoming National-led coalition
might see fit to appoint him as the next Climate Change Commissioner when that
position becomes vacant later this year. While Shaw had given no hint yet of
his next career moves, that appointment remains an open possibility. It would
certainly be an astute move by the new government, were it to happen, and would
lock-in the climate change response that Shaw oversaw over the last six years.
Shaw’s
departure – and hints from co-leader Marama Davidson that her position should
not be taken for granted after the end of this year – raise serious leadership issues
for the Greens. However, the party is not without talented people who could
step into vacant leadership positions. Auckland Central MP Chloe Swarbrick is
the obvious contender to replace Shaw. She has long featured in opinion poll
preferred Prime Minister ratings (ahead of both Shaw and Davidson) and has
clear popular appeal, as her wins in Auckland Central in 2020 and 2023 show.
The only outstanding question to be resolved is whether she wants the role,
otherwise it seems hers for the taking.
Rongotai
MP and former Minister Julie Anne Genter is another contender, either now or
post-Davidson. Significantly, both Swarbrick and Genter have won well-off,
well-educated electorates, so are clearly able to appeal to the middle ground
of New Zealand politics, where elections are usually decided.
However,
the bigger question arising from Shaw’s departure is what it means for the
future policy direction of the Greens. Despite his ability to build support
across political lines for his issues, Shaw was criticised by many within the
Greens for his moderation and pragmatism. Whatever future leadership
combination emerges within the party is unlikely to be as moderate and
pragmatic as Shaw. That means that potentially the Greens could be less
influential in the future.
While
some will lament the loss of Shaw’s style, others will see opportunity. Given
their best-ever election result in 2023 and the disarray evident within the
heavily depleted Labour Party, the Greens are well-positioned to challenge for
the role of the major Opposition party at the next election. A more sharply
defined position on environmental and social justice issues, that resonates
with “teal” voters in middle class electorates – like Auckland Central,
Rongotai, Wellington Central and more – is an important next step the Greens
need to take.
Recent
events within the Labour Party are also relevant. The steady exodus of former
Labour Ministers – three have gone since the election – is part of the process
of renewal (well, sort of – the replacement MPs were all ones defeated at the
election). That was not unexpected. More significant has been the election of a
new Labour Policy Council which now includes economic left-wingers like former
Minister Michael Wood and CTU economist Craig Renney (who reportedly aspires to
be Minister of Finance in a future Labour-led government). Labour looks set for
a time of significant internal debate – no bad thing in itself – but one that
has the capacity to widen further the divisions already evident within the
party. All of which creates new opportunities for the Greens.
James
Shaw may well say he is leaving because his “work is done”. Not only has his
legacy been secured through his climate change achievements, but he has also
created the conditions which now allow the Greens to challenge seriously to be
the major party of opposition. Not bad for someone who always seemed to be an
outsider within the Greens’ movement!
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