In the early days of the fourth Labour Government then Finance Minister Sir Roger Douglas frequently described the government’s sweeping reform approach as moving so quickly on a variety of fronts that it was impossible for the Opposition to keep up with the pace of change. But a few months later, then Deputy Prime Minister Sir Geoffrey Palmer was acknowledging that the government was suffering from “speed wobbles.”
When it took office at the end of last year, the current National-led
coalition government swiftly set about dismantling as many of the cornerstone
policies of the last Labour government as quickly as it could in what looked like
a none-too-subtle attempt to remove as many vestiges of Ardernism as possible
from the national political landscape. What had been known as “blitzkrieg”
under 1980s Labour became “scorched earth” under 2020s National.
Both approaches were panned by critics of the day and sparked
typically circular debates about the need to curb the executive powers of
governments to act this way. Predictably, these calls died down as those
governments settled into their work and people adjusted to the changes being
made. Equally predictably, Opposition parties of the time promised not to
behave that way when they next came to office.
However, in a recent interview, Labour’s finance spokesperson
(and potential future leader) Barbara Edmonds showed a refreshing honesty. In a
remarkable affirmation of the French maxim “plus ça change, plus c'est la même
chose” (the more things change, the more they stay the same) she said Labour
has learned from the current government when it comes to managing economic
reform. She said “‘do it early is probably a lesson”. In her view, an incoming
Labour-led government should go early and go hard, so there is time for things
to settle in before the public next heads to voting booths. Her candour was
reminiscent of Douglas’s approach forty years ago.
So, those looking to a future Labour-led government to slow
down the pace of change seem set to be disappointed if Edmonds has her way. She
clearly intends to be just as ruthless in quickly clearing the decks should she
become Finance Minister as Douglas, Ruth Richardson and now Willis were before
her.
However, Edmonds was somewhat less specific about her policy
intent. That is hardly surprising at this stage of the electoral cycle, nor is
it inconsistent with past practice. After all, Douglas did not reveal his full
hand until after the 1984 election, arguing the sudden calling of the “Schnapps”
election and the largely concealed parlous state of Muldoon’s controlled
economy prevented a full election policy roll-out before the election.
Likewise, Willis argued that she was constrained by potential coalition
negotiation concessions, although she was adamant her tax cuts programme would
proceed in some form.
The only clear policy hint Edmonds has given – in contrast to
the waffling coyness of her leader Chris Hipkins – is that the capital gains
tax Labour has previously campaigned on unsuccessfully in 2011 and 2014 (and
which both Ardern and Hipkins ruled out as Prime Minister) is firmly back on
Labour’s agenda. After all, why else would she in the same interview have claimed
that many business leaders privately support ANZ Bank CEO Antonia Watson’s recent
public call to introduce a capital gains tax, and pleaded that she now needs
them “to say that publicly”?
Shortly after he became Finance Minister in 1999, Sir Michael
Cullen described the role as akin to that of a managing director. Other
Ministers were like branch managers, he said, with the Prime Minister being
like the Board Chair. Over the years, governments of whatever political hue
have become defined by the policies of their Finance Minister. From Rogernomics
to Sir Bill English’s “compassionate conservatism”, it has always been the
same. It is the Finance Minister who puts the stamp on a government’s policy
style and approach. In that regard, it could be argued that Edmonds’ interview
comments were as much about making this point clear to her own colleagues, as
they were remarks for the wider public.
While Edmonds’ comments have revealed how she would approach
the role of Finance Minister were it ever to come her way, they have also made
it more difficult in the short-term for Labour to criticise the government’s
pace of change. And her acknowledgment that Labour did not always get it right
on key policies – like fair pay agreements which she says Labour remains
committed to reintroducing, although not in their original form, or social
insurance that she is silent on – makes it that much more difficult to
criticise National’s abandonment of those policies.
But overall, Edmond’s admiration of the speedy way the
current government went about its early changes simply confirms that a future
Labour-led government will perform just the same as the current government. Therefore,
the National-Labour political merry go-round looks set to carry on, the way it
always has done.
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