This week, the rituals that herald the start of each Parliamentary year begin.

Both the major parties are holding their traditional two-day start-of-year Caucus retreats. National is meeting in Hamilton and Labour is in Palmerston North. Caucus retreats rarely yield anything of value but are useful mechanisms for demonstrating Party bonhomie and outward unity, especially after tough times like a Cabinet reshuffle, or a demoralising return to Opposition after years in government. The overriding impression both parties will want to leave after their retreats is that they are fired up, confident and ready to face the challenges of the political year which begins in earnest when Parliament resumes next week.

But before too much of the hot air generated at the retreats fades away, the parties will dutifully trek to Ratana Pā for the commemoration services this weekend of the 152^nd anniversary of the birth of Tahupōtiki Wiremu Rātana, founder of the Rātana Church and political movement. Again, the process follows a set ritual – the separate formal welcome of the government and opposition parties onto the marae, followed by the often-frank speeches on the paepae, refreshments and the farewell.

When Parliament resumes next week, the first item of business will be the presentation of the Prime Minister’s Statement, which is supposed to set out the broad thrust of the government’s legislative plans for the year ahead. That is followed by a debate, lasting up to 13 hours, and spread over several days, ostensibly on the Statement’s contents, but wide-ranging over any aspect of the government’s performance, and other matters besides.

That process will be more drawn out this year because after resuming next week, earlier than in recent years, Parliament will go into a one week recess the following week to allow for the annual Waitangi Day Commemorations to take place.

At the end of the debate on the Prime Minister’s Statement, there will be the first vote of confidence of the year, which the government will need to win to continue in office. Then, both the House and the select committees can settle into their respective work patterns for the year ahead. As this is the second year of the government’s term it is also likely to be its busiest. Last year was about a new government settling into its work and developing the legislation necessary to give effect to its policy programme. Next year will be about tidying up loose ends and battening down the hatches before the election, due sometime in the latter quarter of the year.

This year will also be the time when Members of Parliament start to think about their futures and whether they wish to seek a further term at next year’s election. Typically, around a quarter to as third of Parliament stands down (either voluntarily or involuntarily) at each election. It will therefore not be unexpected to start to see a stream of upcoming retirements announced from around the middle of the year.

There is an added complication this year. In March, the Representation Commission is due to release draft new electorate boundaries for the 2026 election for public consultation. They will be finalised by August. The law currently fixes the number of electorates in the South Island at 16. However, this year because of the increase in the South Island’s population recorded in the 2023 Census, the number of North Island electorate seats will be reduced by one to ensure North Island electorates remain approximately the same population size as their South Island counterparts.

There has been speculation that because of wider population changes in Wellington and Auckland either the Epsom or Ōhāriu seats may be abolished, which would have implications for both the sitting members for those electorates. In Wellington, the three existing electorates of Rongatai, Wellington Central and Ōhāriu are all under the new electorate population quota making it difficult to see how all three can be retained. It is a similar story in Auckland with Epsom and its near neighbours all below the new quota.

Whatever happens, there will be ramifications beyond the electorate eventually chosen for abolition, which nearby MPs will weigh up when deciding whether to stand again, unless of course they are able to flee to the safety of a good place on the party list. From the end of the coming year, all parties will be starting to reveal the new candidates they have attracted to run both in electorates and on the party list in 2026.

There are two other unusual features to watch for in the first half of 2025. Around the end of May, pursuant to the Coalition Agreement, David Seymour will replace Winston Peters as Deputy Prime Minister until the next election. While that transfer is expected to go smoothly, the interesting point to watch will be whether it leads to any change in the dynamic of relationships within the Coalition, particularly since Peters, with a clear eye to the next election, has promised to be more assertive in pursuing New Zealand First’s interests once freed of being Deputy Prime Minister.

Second, and over the same period, will be the select committee process regarding the Treaty Principles Bill. How that proceeds, both in terms of how the submissions eventually chosen to be heard by the committee are treated, and the nature of the evidence presented, will be extremely testing, even if the Bill remains headed for eventual defeat. Unless it is carefully and wisely managed, the process has the capacity to completely dominate and thereby derail much of the rest of the government’s programme.

Once those items have been dealt with, the second ritual aspect of the Parliamentary year – the procedures around the presentation of the Budget and the scrutiny and accountability processes associated with that – kick in and will see Parliament through until it rises just before next Christmas.