There has been much criticism that Labour leader Chris Hipkins' so-called state of the nation speech to Auckland business leaders this week was a missed opportunity. According to these critics, Hipkins should have used the occasion to spell out some major policy details to kick-start his party's election campaign.
However,
the critics miss the unpleasant point Hipkins finally seems to have
acknowledged. Based on its performance of constant over-promising and chronic
under-delivery when last in government, Labour starts with a massive
credibility problem when it comes to new policy. Add in the lingering
bitterness in Auckland at Labour's treatment of the city during the second
Covid19 lockdown, not to mention that as Covid19 Minister Hipkins was a
dominant part of that, and the depth of Hipkins' and Labour's Auckland credibility
problem becomes even starker.
Against
that backdrop, a major policy speech from Hipkins to Auckland business would
have gone down like a lead balloon. It simply would not have been taken
seriously because the memory of how Hipkins (both when Covid19 Minister and
later as Prime Minister) and Labour treated Auckland – where elections traditionally
are won or lost – is still too raw.
Therefore,
Hipkins' primary task over the last two years has been to repair the fences
Labour has broken in Auckland and to rebuild his own personal credibility
before he can be taken seriously as a Prime Minister. It is at best an ongoing,
incomplete work in progress.
His
speech this week was an important part of that, aiming to project Hipkins as a
credible, trustworthy and reliable leader who could guide the country steadily
through its current difficulties. If Aucklanders, and by extension New
Zealanders generally, are going to warm to Labour again so quickly after
dumping them unceremoniously at the last election, it must be because they are warming
to the prospect of Hipkins as Prime Minister again. So, his primary objective
in that speech was to present himself as an unthreatening and competent leader to
whom people can relate to and trust.
Hipkins'
quiet, reflective and almost sombre tone is like that being followed by his
finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds in her own presentations to business and
professional audiences. The message from both is that Labour has learnt its
lessons from the still not specifically acknowledged, but implicitly
understood, failures of its last stint in office, and can now be relied on to
be more prudent and reliable if elected to government later this year.
To
reinforce that sense, both Hipkins and Edmonds are holding steadily to the line
that Labour will not announce any new policies until after this year’s Budget
when the true state of the government’s books will be known. While that sounds
good and fits the tone both are trying to set, it could also mean that there
are still battles to be resolved between the Caucus and the party’s left-wing,
union dominated Policy Council.
But
there is also a bigger point, beyond the need to rebuild Hipkins’ and Labour’s
public credibility and any still unresolved internal party policy battles. Any
future Labour-led government will need to involve the Green Party and probably Te
Pati Māori. Hipkins knows that that prospect is downright scary to many of the
swinging voters Labour needs to attract this year.
He
also knows that Prime Minister Luxon is frequently criticised for his
government too often appearing to be led by the nose by its ACT and New Zealand
First partners. Hipkins is therefore understandably keen to avoid reinforcing
any impression that the Green Party and Te Pati Māori will be similarly dominant
in any future government he may lead.
In
the wider sense, the truism that Oppositions do not win elections, but
governments lose them still applies. As has been the case for nearly all this
Parliamentary term, the current government leads the Opposition bloc in public
opinion polls, albeit narrowly. But the polls are also showing increasing
disapproval of the government’s performance and general indifference to the
Opposition.
It
is therefore in the Opposition’s interest to keep the public focus
substantially on the government’s performance for as long as possible. The key
thing Labour can do in the meantime is repair its credibility so that when
voters are ready it looks like a credible lead party of government-in-waiting.
That
is what Hipkins and Edmonds are trying to do through their public presentations
– a combination of reassurance and prudence in difficult times. Making bold new
promises at this stage to an electorate that is tired and cynical of the worth
of politicians’ offerings would be counterproductive to their cause, and they
both know it. Unfortunately, though, the ongoing public sourness and sense of denial
about their public perception some of their colleagues still project undermines
their efforts.
Hipkins’
state of the nation speech, derided by some as boring and unimaginative, was an
important signal that he wants to lead a steady, predictable and focused
government. But he faces two significant challenges from here on. The first will
be sticking to that message as the campaign unfolds and the pressures from the
various left-wing unions and support groups mount for more spending and
intervention. And the second will be to persuade those who are of a mind to
listen that he is strong enough to ensure any government he leads will be
steady, predictable and focused, and not hijacked by the Green Party or Te Pati
Māori if their numbers are vital to him forming a government.
Despite
Hipkins’ best efforts, Labour’s path to government still remains steeply
uphill.