It is often said
that leopards rarely change their spots.
On that basis, it
will be somewhat of a surprise if New Zealand First manages to survive the
current three year term as part of the governing coalition. Staying the
distance is simply not in the Party’s or its leader’s DNA.
In 1991, just a year
into the Bolger National Government’s first term, Mr Peters was ejected from
the party Caucus and dismissed as a Minister. That set off a series of events
that led to the launch of the New Zealand First Party in mid 1993, and its success
at that year’s election. In 1998, after 20 months of the National/New Zealand
First Coalition Government Mr Peters was dismissed as Deputy Prime Minister and
Treasurer and his Party left the Coalition shortly thereafter. New Zealand
First was able to regroup and recover its polling strength sufficiently to
ensure it survived (just) the 1999 election. In 2008, shortly before the
election, Mr Peters was stood down as Foreign Minister while Parliament’s
Privileges Committee investigated allegations of financial irregularities
within New Zealand First. Its critical findings contributed to New Zealand
First’s defeat at the ensuing election.
Now, with New
Zealand First’s polling declining and ongoing speculation of tension within the
present Coalition Government, with suggestions New Zealand First calls all of
the shots over Labour and its more natural ally, the Greens, the same questions
are being asked again. Is New Zealand First reverting to type and is it about
to bring about a fracture within the government to allow it to differentiate
itself, and perhaps recover its support, in time for the election next year?
Critics are pointing to the confusion over abortion law changes and New Zealand
First’s apparently late call for a binding referendum, having not raised the
matter during the preceding negotiations on the proposed changes, and its less
than enthusiastic support for the government’s position on Ihumatao as evidence
Mr Peters may be up to his old tricks again.
While the odds fall
heavily on the side of New Zealand First confirming its serial inability to
stay the distance as part of a government, Mr Peters, by his very survival to
this point, has shown he can on occasion defy the odds. It is just possible on
this occasion he will do just that, and that all we are seeing at the moment is
sabre-rattling to remind the public and the hapless Labour and Green Parties
that he, not the Prime Minister, is in charge and drives this government. At
the same time, he is none too subtly reminding his government partners that
without him and the way he wants to do things, there will be no
government. Ironically, he may well
survive until the election, not because he necessarily wants to, but because
the Prime Minister knows feeding this tiger is the best way to ensure her own
survival, at least in the short-term. But, if New Zealand First’s polling does
not recover, even the desperation of this modern-day appeasement may not be
enough to keep the house of cards standing.
The National Party
will be watching these disruptions with a strong sense of déjà vu. They will be
delighted to see Labour being led by the nose, as they were in 1996-98 and now
equally powerless to do anything about it. But they should not get too far
ahead of themselves. Of course, they would welcome the demise of the coalition,
were it to happen. They might even be in a position to form a minority
government to lead the country through until the next election, but they would
be no better off as such a government would have to pay the price of relying on
at least New Zealand First’s abstention on matters of confidence and supply to
ensure its survival until then. Even then, given National’s continuing
unwillingness to rule out New Zealand First from its electoral calculations, it
would have to face the same problem all over again after the election.
Mr Peters’ periodic
restlessness is frustrating and unpredictable, and has never provided any
contribution to good and stable government. But for him, those are secondary
considerations, because his politics are all about putting himself centre
stage. While he has judiciously surrounded himself over the years with Caucuses
of the timid and the vacuous, they and age are no longer his friends. People
are starting to ask what happens next, once he shuffles on, probably sooner
than later. New Zealanders have shown him remarkable tolerance over the
generations. Very few people, least of all politicians, get more than a second
chance in our society, yet this term of government provides a fourth chance for
him to try to stay the course.
The logical
incentives must be powerful for him to do so, but the old spots are still
there. While Labour and National are left helplessly to watch from the
sidelines what irrational, Trumpian alarums he will embark upon next to try to
recover his support, Mr Peters, true to form, will see that as utterly as it
should be, and he will have it no other way.
It is all about him,
after all.