For those who
follow British politics, the prospect of the coming General Election turning
into a major train wreck for the British Labour Party looms large. Barely a day
passes without another set of contradictory views or comments emerging from
senior members of that Party. Most of the criticism inevitably finds its way
back to the Party’s veteran socialist leader, Jeremy Corbyn, a man who, in a
long political career has never been chosen to hold any Government office. For
afficiandos, it is all fun and games, happening sufficiently far away not to be
too bothered about. However, there are some similarities with the New Zealand
situation which should not go unremarked upon.
Jeremy Corbyn was
never elected leader of the British Labour Party by the Party’s MPs – indeed,
only a few months ago, they passed overwhelmingly a vote of no-confidence in
his leadership. Yet he remains, having twice been selected by the Party at
large and its trade union base to be Labour’s standard bearer. New Zealand
Labour has a similar selection system – current leader Andrew Little was
installed in his role in 2014 with the backing of well under half his MPs, and then
only narrowly because of the union vote. (Hardly surprising given his
background as a former President of the Council of Trade Unions. It is
tantalising to speculate how different the outcome might have been had Caucus
favourite Grant Robertson with running mate Jacinda Ardern – the so-called Grazinda
team – been selected at that time instead.)
As with Mr
Corbyn, Mr Little knows that the key to his retaining the leadership, lies not
with his MPs, but with the Party’s trade union affiliates. He has already shown
his recognition of that by his installation of trade union officials as
candidates in a number of seats around the country. Many are likely to feature
high up on the Party’s “democratically” selected list. And, like Mr Corbyn, he
has eschewed any prospect of Labour claiming the centre ground of politics,
indeed going so far as to dismiss the political centre and those who occupy it
as “irrelevant.” Both Mr Corbyn and Mr Little believe naively that there is a
latent Labour majority out there – the missing million voters New Zealand Labour
keeps talking about – that has only to be offered a “true” Labour Party for
them to return home, and that in the meantime, there is therefore no need to
reach out to any other voting group than the missing “true believers” waiting
for the restoration of traditional paradise.
In Britain, so
far, Labour’s campaign has been marked by public disagreements on key policies
– whether it be how to deal with ISIL, or the future of the Trident missile
system, where Mr Corbyn’s position seems to be at odds with the rest of his
MPs. That is yet to come in New Zealand – principally because Labour seems to
have no real policy for its MPs to disagree over – but there are clear signs Mr
Little is prone to the same make-it-up-on-the-spot approach as Mr Corbyn.
Witness the debacle over immigration policy. Last week, Mr little was reported
widely as proposing to cut immigration numbers by 51,000. While the
announcement came from nowhere, there was no denial by any Labour MP at the
time that this was their policy. Now, over a week later, having been widely
criticised for the announcement, Mr Little says he was misreported, that when
he said immigration levels should fall from about around 71,000 to about
20,000, he did not mean a reduction of 51,000. It is difficult to know what
else he meant, particularly when his defence was to confirm his original figures,
and that he was talking about a drop of “tens of thousands” only. It was a pure
Corbyn moment. (It came just a week after a similar moment when responding to
National’s pay equity decision.) National will be hoping for many more over the
next few months.
As the Antipodean
Jeremy Corbyn, Mr Little must have groaned when Teresa May called Britain’s
election for early June. New Zealanders are going to be able to watch a preview
of his performance and likely fate, well in advance of our own election. And
when the inevitable blood-letting takes place after the British train wreck,
New Zealand Labour will struggle to avoid the spotlight being turned on its own
Jeremy Corbyn, and his journey down the same track.