Our new
government has taken office and comparisons are already being made about the
circumstances of its accession. Some are saying that the public mood is similar
in terms of enthusiasm and response to the advent of the Lange Government in
1984. That government came to office after the grim and increasingly repressive
Muldoon Government, and its election was greeted more with a sense of relief
that the long national nightmare was finally over, than a sense of excitement
about what lay ahead. That is clearly not the mood today. There is no sense
that either the country is on its knees and facing imminent economic collapse,
or that the outgoing government had become more and more intrusive in people's lives
and virtually every aspect of the economy, as was the case in 1984.
A more accurate
comparison is 1972, when the Kirk Labour Government swept to power. There was
at that time a palpable feeling of "It's Time for a Change", not too
far removed from this year's "Let's Do It" slogan now being reprised
in so many different ways, as Kirk capitalised on a mood that the long-term
National Government had run out of steam and ideas. Like today, the economy was
in reasonably good shape - the impacts of the 1974 Oil Shock and Britain's
joining Europe in 1973 were yet to come - and there was a growing sense of
optimism about the country's future and emerging identity. The "climate
change" issues of the early 1970s were French nuclear testing in the
Pacific, and apartheid in South Africa (both of which the new government had
strong positions on) and there was a housing shortage, in Auckland in
particular. All in all, circumstances far more akin to today than to 1984.
But herein lies
the challenge for the new government. Leaving aside the particulars of managing
a coalition with the serially erratic New Zealand First (the Greens will be far
less difficult - they, after all, are just happy to finally be there after 27
years of failure), the new government would do well to study the lessons of the
Third Labour Government, lest it similarly succumb in 2020 or earlier and end
up just another "what if" footnote in history.
First, it should
be careful about promoting and believing in its own invincibility too much.
When Kirk was elected in 1972, no-one imagined he would be dead within two years,
with his government left wallowing in the wake of his demise. This is most
certainly not suggesting nor wishing a similar fate for our new Prime Minister,
but using the drama of the most unexpected circumstance of all to highlight the
priority need to establish a credible, broad based, competent leadership team. Next, no-one also envisaged in 1972 the
economic shocks that lay ahead, with the dramatic oil price increases and
supply limitations after the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the catastrophic impact
they were to have on fortress economies like ours. The domestic cocoon of complacency
always shatters quickly in a crisis. In the 1970s New Zealand was clearly
caught short by not only the Oil Crisis but also the impact on our trading
patterns and the need to develop markets and diversify products that British
entry to the Common Market had caused. So, the government needs to be wary of
trying to shelter New Zealand too much from global influences, over which it
has no control. A cautious embrace of globalism, rather than a wholesale rejection
would be prudent. We are part of, not apart from, an increasingly
interdependent world. And finally, the government needs to know and understand
the value of flexibility and pragmatism. It will not always be right, no matter
how much it will wish to be. Kirk's refusal to budge from costly manifesto
commitments, despite the international economic shocks, was short-sighted and
blinkered, and allowed Muldoon, aided by the Dancing Cossacks, to storm to
victory in 1975 on the promise to "Rebuild New Zealand's Shattered Economy".
Last week, one
Australian newspaper stupidly and wrongly labelled our new Prime Minister a
"commie", which clearly she is not. But, as an educated and literate
person, she will be well aware of Karl Marx's observation that the thing to learn
from history is that people do not. So I wish her well as she sets out to
disprove that dictum.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10465138
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