The
National Party has been looking increasingly awkward in recent weeks while the
Labour-led Government has been rolling out major policy announcements.
Its
criticisms seem to oscillate between attacking the proposals themselves, but
then saying that they are either really a reiteration of National policies
already underway, or things it was planning to do anyway. While there is some
evidence these claims are valid (which, after all, should not be surprising,
given that National has just finished nine years in office) the consequence is
that they leave National's current criticisms looking a little hamstrung, and
the Opposition appearing somewhat kneejerk in its response. None of which
inspires confidence at this early stage in National's ability to lead a
government in 2020, or whenever the next election occurs.
Of,
course it is not quite as simple as that and it would be foolishly premature to
start making election predictions at this early stage when there are yet almost
two and a half years to run before the next scheduled election. (The last
election alone showed that predictions made just six weeks before election day
can be blown away by changing circumstances!) Nevertheless, the suspicion is
strong that Labour will not be too unhappy at National's present approach.
After all, it is getting to implement its policies, and the lament "we
were already doing that, or were planning to do it anyway" is neither
telling nor withering. It might have more impact if it were being pointed out
by the media, as would be appropriate, but, overall, most of the media is still
too much in the Prime Minister's thrall for that to be happening yet.
So
the challenge for National is to work out what to do. On the positive side is
the polling position - still heavily in National's favour. Following the
general assumption that Governments lose support from the day they take office,
it is likely that Labour will never be more popular than it is today - several
percentage points behind National. While a good morale booster for National,
there is still the daunting reality that National lacks reliable support
partners, and that New Zealand First and the Greens are keeping Labour's head
just above the water at this stage, and could do so again after 2020, even if
Labour falls. That probably means National's best shot at governing, in the
absence of a new partner emerging, will be as a single party majority
Government, something that has not happened thus far under MMP. In turn, that
means ensuring that neither New Zealand First nor the Greens make it to the
next Parliament, which also means alienating any potential support from those
parties in the meantime.
All
this is a very tall order, and will not become even a possibility, given the
way National is operating presently. So, what to do?
Well,
under this scenario, the flagship policies of the support partners become the
real targets, and the day-to-day policies of the Labour Party less important.
As befits its historic rural and provincial base, National needs to reclaim its
brand as the party of the regions. That will require a full-frontal attack on
New Zealand First and the Provincial Growth Fund, not so much the Fund itself,
because the idea of a dedicated Provincial Growth Fund is popular in rural and
provincial quarters, but more because of the cavalier, overbearing, overly
partisan, pork-barrelling way it is being driven by Minister Shane Jones. There
is already plenty of scope there, with Minister Jones' enormous, cocky
self-belief certainly likely to add to that dramatically before the term is
out!
The
second area of opportunity for National is environmental policy. There is a
strong blue-green element in National, predominantly urban and young, and there
are many opportunities for National to appear as the responsible Greens in this
regard. However, for some of its MPs, a tectonic plate like shift in attitude
will be required. For example, for many urban voters, in Auckland particularly,
the promise of light rail as one of our transport solutions has appeal.
Dismissing it the way some National MPs seem routinely to do as just
"trams" simply brands them as backward looking and ignorant. But,
with the Prime Minister seemingly bent on yielding to all of the Greens'
environmental wish lists, even at the expense of some of her own key policies
like cutting the cost of a visit to the doctor by $10, the likelihood of the
Government going too far, too fast is high, further enhancing the opportunity
for a more considered blue-green approach from National.
To
be successful, National needs to become a nimble and strategic Opposition, spelling
out a clear alternative message to voters. Although change will not happen
overnight, it will not happen at all if it lapses into Opposition for the sake
of it, as looks the case at present.
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