Facing once in a generation strikes across the public
sector - from nurses to teachers, and core public servants - the Coalition
Government has been consistently and confusingly sending a very mixed message.
On the one hand, it evinces sympathy for and even empathy with their issues of
concern, but on the other hand, says it has no more money to put on the table.
Yet, as the first cab off the rank, the nurses have managed, not once but three
times, to ratchet up the response to their claims, even though they are yet to
reach a settlement. It is little wonder that other public servants like
teachers and the core public sector are fancying their chances when their turn
at the bargaining table comes.
What is going on here? Is the Coalition Government so
naive to think it can lead the public sector on in this way and not expect a
backlash when they fail to deliver? Do they really expect these workers whose
claims of nine years of income neglect they profess to support, to now accept the jam tomorrow argument from
this Government made up of their apparent friends, for whom many of them they
actively campaigned and worked at election time? After all, they believed there
was finally some light at the end of the tunnel when the National-led
Government was ousted. Their fear must be that, given its shaky electoral
position, this Government may not be around in two years time, and things will
potentially be back to where they were. Or is there some other game in town?
It is certainly true that across many fields the
Coalition Government is determined to paint the previous Government as one of
neglect - from health and housing, to education and regional development, and
now defence. The message is the same: they have nine years of under-investment has
to overcome. By painting such a drastic picture they can then move deftly to
say that the problems run so deep, they cannot be solved within one three year
Parliamentary term, giving themselves a very convenient way out, and some
flexibility.
To that extent, it is a tactic straight out of the
Lange/Douglas playbook. In their case, it was the economic crisis that had brought
the country to its knees. While a strongly performing economy at present denies
this Government that opportunity, it has fixed upon an infrastructure and
investment deficit instead. Indeed, the only thing missing from the
Lange/Douglas game plan is an Opening of the Books and Economic Summit
extravaganza, but greater Government financial transparency today makes that a
little more difficult to stage manage effectively than in 1984.
It is within this framework that this Government has to
juggle the public sector pay round negotiations. It has already spent large
amounts on flagship policies to justify its narrative and meet the demands of
its Coalition partners, and is now facing the reality that the cupboard is
getting bare, at least in the short term. Hence the delicate balancing act it
is now undertaking, trying to convince the public sector it really is on their
side, while not meeting their specific demands. It is hoping to win their support on a "better your friends in government,
than the other side, so just be patient and trust us" approach, and will
throw out to them some other bones (like more union friendly industrial
relations legislation) to keep them happy in the meantime. The aim is to keep teachers,
nurses, and public servants on side and
still populating their electorate committees and delivering their
pamphlets. It is banking on the unions'
leadership being able to carry the day with their memberships.
The strategy is risky, as we have already seen. It is
clear that the nurses' "rank and file" is more resistant that their
union leadership, and that while the deals reached to date may have satisfied
the negotiators, they have failed to win the confidence of the membership at
large. A similar outcome is likely when the traditionally more militant
teachers get fully into their negotiating stride, and the response of core
public servants in their rare industrial action this week indicates they may be
of a like mind.
The Government's failure to manage effectively the
situation to date suggests its whole flimsy public sector incomes policy
edifice is not far from tumbling down altogether. The more the Government
professes sympathy for the situation of its workforce, yet does nothing, the
more it will embolden them. That is not difficult to understand.
What is more difficult to understand, though, is why this
Government is continuing to send its mixed messages. It simply looks weak and
inept, leaving open the possibility of a pretty grim and dour few months ahead,
and a large of group of disillusioned supporters expecting appeasement before
the next election.
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