Britain votes today
in an election brought on by the ongoing failure of the House of Commons to
approve any of the Brexit deals put before it over the last couple of years by
successive Prime Ministers, Theresa May and now Boris Johnson. Mr Johnson will
be hoping his gamble to call an early election will pay off and that he will be
able to honour his latest commitment to the British people to leave the
European Union by the end of the coming January. But whether even a decisive
election outcome will help heal the divisions that have exploded in Britain
since the 2016 referendum, and now threaten the very survival of the United
Kingdom, is doubtful.
There has been
another aspect to this election that has been significant. Jeremy Corbyn’s
Labour Party has been campaigning to end what it describes as the austerity of
the last decade by promoting the most left-wing manifesto published by Labour
since 1945. It even surpasses Michael Foot’s 1983 effort, now remembered as
“the longest suicide note in history” which contributed to Labour’s landslide
defeat by a Margaret Thatcher rampant after recapturing the Falklands Islands a
year earlier. Time will tell whether Mr Corbyn can buck history, or whether a
similar fate awaits him this election.
The relevance of
this to New Zealand was highlighted by the Greens’ announcement earlier this
week that they will no longer be bound by the Budget Responsibility Rules they
agreed with Labour before the last election to stave off allegations that they
were too profligate to be trusted in government. The Rules were designed to
show that both Labour and the Greens could act responsibly in office, and to
pacify sympathetic but edgy voters that they would mismanage the economy, if put
in charge.
Now, the Greens say
the rules are too restrictive, stopping the government at a time of record
surpluses from investing the amounts they see as required to overcome local
rising social and infrastructure deficits – from increasing child poverty
levels to upgraded schools and hospitals. As well, even Labour, after a similar
two years of criticism from its core supporters that it is being too stringent,
is looking to loosen its purse strings and considerably soften the self-imposed
Budget Responsibility Rules.
In so doing, both
parties will be hoping to regain some momentum towards becoming the
“transformational” government they jointly pledged to become at the last
election. But the Finance Minister will not abandon fiscal restraint
altogether, as, like Finance Ministers before him, he has developed the acute
sense of parsimony that goes with the job. Nevertheless, as Labour enters
election year it can be expected to become considerably freer with its spending
promises than it has been so far. Even more freed of the restraint of the
Budget Responsibility Rules the Greens can be expected to go full Corbyn now
when it comes to spending promises. Between them, both look like offering a
veritable cornucopia of expensive election goodies for voters to drool over.
National will be
rubbing its hands in glee at the prospect of at last facing unashamed real tax
and spend parties at the election, but they may need to tread a little
carefully. If, as Jeremy Corbyn is so obviously hoping in Britain, the public
reaction against government restraint has built up to the extent that voters
are now prepared to indulge in a splurge of public spending and mounting debt,
based on selective discriminatory tax increases on others, National may quickly
find that being the harbinger of fiscal responsibility is not the winning card
it once was. After a decade of relative stability and steady although modest
income growth, voters may indeed be willing to kick back their heels somewhat
come election time. In such circumstances, it will without hesitation and
quickly and shamelessly seek to outspend Labour and the Greens. And we will end
up with potentially the biggest election auction of recent times, possibly even
since 1957 and Labour’s infamous final campaign advertisement “Do you want 100
pounds or not?”.
With the ongoing
international economic uncertainty caused by Britain’s dithering over Brexit, through
to having to pay for yet another visit here by a member of its Royal Family,
New Zealand has not had much to be grateful to Britain for in recent years. It
may have even less to be pleased about should Mr Corbyn emerge as its next
Prime Minister and the contagion he unleashes spread to our shores.
You are such a toad Dunne. What's wrong with a manifesto that swings as dramatically to the left to counter the likes if politicians such as you who quietly fiddled whilst the Keys, Blairs, Cameron's, May's and Johnsons not to mention Trumps have taken the world towards Ghengis Khan!!!!
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