Thursday 24 September 2020

 

With just over three weeks until the General Election, the release of the first major pre-election opinion poll this week confirmed what was already being reported about this year’s campaign. 

Although the gap between Labour and National has narrowed slightly it remains substantial and is unlikely to be overturned by election day. That means that, whatever else happens, National is likely to be looking at the loss of up to 15 seats, including 14 sitting (mainly list) MPs. Already, polling is showing National set to lose the Auckland Central seat it has held since 2008, and there are whispers that other seats like Whanganui and Wairarapa are poised to fall as well. A reduction in numbers of that size will have significant implications for both the Party’s resourcing in the next Parliament, which will be proportionately reduced, and will also remove the dominance National has had of select committees in the last Parliament, because of its high numbers of MPs. 

Labour, on the other hand, stands to gain up to 16 additional MPs, over and above those being elected to replace Labour MPs who are retiring, which will present its own challenges in the coming Parliament. For many, their election, on the party list, will come as an unexpected surprise to both themselves and the Party itself. Undoubtedly, some of these will subsequently prove not up to the task of being MPs and will need to be hidden away lest they become embarrassments. Others will quickly become frustrated that in a Caucus potentially that large, there will be little opportunity for them to make any significant impact, especially as policymaking and major decisions will continue, as is the case in all governments, to be made by the Cabinet, and within that, the core of Ministers close to the Prime Minister. 

In addition, there will be those from the 2017 intake frustrated that after a term in government, there is no place in the Ministry for them, and they remain just backbenchers. Managing these egos and thwarted ambitions will take some skill and will be a major challenge for the Party’s Whips and officials in the term ahead. On the other hand, Labour will gain significant additional Parliamentary resources because of this windfall and should have no difficulty in ensuring a reliable government majority on all select committees. 

While the Greens will be breathing a sigh of relief that on the basis of this week’s poll, they are across the party vote threshold, they still face some major uncertainties. Historically, the Greens have always done better in opinion polls than on election day itself, so being just over the threshold at this stage means, on the basis of past performance they cannot yet take their re-election as a given. Previously, they have always received a big bump in their support from overseas votes, but with many Zealanders having come home because of Covid19, there may be fewer of these, and in any case, the likelihood is that Labour will be the main beneficiary of them this year. Moreover, even if the Greens are returned, there is no guarantee what role they will play in the next Parliament. It was significant that the during the leaders’ debate this week the Prime Minister was very coy about the prospects of the Greens continuing to play a role in government if Labour wins an outright majority. 

For New Zealand First, the news continues to be bad. Despite a national tour and a number of regional policy announcements the Party’s support has barely shifted above the 2% or thereabouts it has been trapped upon for some time. With both Labour and the Greens making negative noises about New Zealand First’s contribution to government since 2017 it is hard to see things changing significantly for them over the next three weeks or so. Even Shane Jones seems to have thrown in the towel at least as far as winning the Northland seat is concerned. In all these circumstances, the Party’s campaign appeal to be the handbrake on Labour and the Greens is ineffectual for two reasons. Some would regard New Zealand First’s behaviour as a classic case of the tail already going too far in wagging the dog, while others would note that it is difficult to be an effective handbrake on anything if the Party is not in Parliament at all. And lurking in the background behind all of this is the report of the Serious Fraud Office into the operations of the New Zealand First Foundation that was promised before the first election date of September 19, but has yet to see the light of day. 

Meanwhile, it continues to be smooth sailing for ACT. David Seymour is presently the most impressive party leader outside the Prime Minister and his party is well on track to record perhaps its best result ever, and certainly its best for at least 15 years. While he may feel frustrated that his reinvigorated party is unlikely to end up a government partner this time, he should perhaps feel relieved. Three years on the crossbenches, as a vocal Opposition party, will give him the opportunity both to weld his new team together, and also to carve out a significant niche to National’s right which ACT can then credibly claim as their own, shutting out more extremist pretenders like the New Conservatives and Advance New Zealand. 

At this stage of the campaign, therefore, the only outstanding questions surround the Greens. Will they actually get over the threshold, and if they do, will Labour want to partner with them again in government if it does not need to? The rest of the election jigsaw is beginning to look remarkably settled which is why the campaign so far has been so uninspiring.     

 

 

9 comments:

  1. The Maori seats could throw up some surprises

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I want to thank Dr Emu a very powerful spell caster who help me to bring my husband back to me, few month ago i have a serious problem with my husband, to the extend that he left the house, and he started dating another woman and he stayed with the woman, i tried all i can to bring him back, but all my effort was useless until the day my friend came to my house and i told her every thing that had happened between me and my husband, then she told me of a powerful spell caster who help her when she was in the same problem I then contact Dr Emu and told him every thing and he told me not to worry my self again that my husband will come back to me after he has cast a spell on him, i thought it was a joke, after he had finish casting the spell, he told me that he had just finish casting the spell, to my greatest surprise within 48 hours, my husband really came back begging me to forgive him, if you need his help you can contact him with via email: Emutemple@gmail.com or add him up on his whatsapp +2347012841542 is willing to help any body that need his help. 

      Delete
    2. Hello viewers around the Globe, I was despondent because i had a very small penis, about 2.5 inches soft and 4 inches hard not nice enough to satisfy a woman, i have been in so many relationship, but cut off because of my situation, i have used so many product which doctors for me, but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments on the INTERNET about this specialist called Dr,OLU and decided to contact him on his email: Drolusolutinthome@gmail.com) so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis Enlargement, Within 3 week of it, i began to feel the enlargement was surprised when she said that she is satisfied with my sex and i have got a large penis. Am so happy, thanks to Dr OLU I also learn that Dr OLU also help with Breast Enlargement Hips and Bums Enlargement etc.. If you are in any situation with a little Penis, weak ejaculation, small breast_hips_bums do get to Dr OLU now for help on his email ( Drolusolutionhome@gmail.com ) or add him on whatsapp line +2348140654426 

      Delete
    3. People actually believe there is no cure for herpes due to what our medical Doctor do always say to us..but now i know that there is a cure for it Through herbal remedy' i and my boyfriend was once haven herpes type 1&2 i contacted Dr Edidia for herbal treatment and he prepared us some herbs which we takes for some couples of days, and we take it as he says before i am to known' i and my boyfriend was perfectly cure for it and never experience the Outbreaks again. please friends if you have herpes virus and you really want to get rid of it permanently, Kindly contact this great Dr Edidia for herbal treatment and you will get rid of it.. truly truly home remedies works perfectly. EMAIL dredidiaherbalhome@gmail.com cell phone contact +2349074505296 his whatsapp contact is +2349074505296.

      Delete
  2. What does a waka jumper know about party loyalty?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Website: (https://emutemple.wordpress.com/  I was born and raised in a small town on Long Island in New York. I live there today with my wife and three wonderful children. I want to testify of how I was cured from prostate cancer by Dr Emu. I was on hormone therapy for advanced prostate cancer. At first I was having lots of signs and symptoms like excessive urine at midnight and also I was experiencing dribbling of urine all the time I was going through hell I search for a cure☑ on the internet I came to know about Dr Emu I saw lots of testimonies of how he cures diseases like *Prostate Cancer *Herpes  Virus *Genital herpes *Hiv/Aids*Breast Cancer and more am happy am cured thanks to Dr Emu I recommend Dr Emu roots and herbs as best natural herbal medicine with no side effects. For consultation and more contact him via Email: (emutemple@gmail.com) (emutemple@yahoo.com) WhatsApp or call +2347012841542 

    ReplyDelete
  4. I TESTED POSITIVE TO HIV SINCE 2018

    I was told by my doctor that there's no possible cure for it but it can be suppressed with the use of medication!! I felt depressed & sad. I started taking my medication. I felt frustrated, so I tried to seek help online when I came across this website (https://chiefdrluckyherbaltherapy.wordpress.com/) of a doctor called Chief Dr Lucky.  Also I saw a lot of testimonials about him on how he uses natural herbal medicine to cure HIV AIDS and numerous Infections & different kinds of disease as well. So I contacted him and told him my problems after a brief consultation with him. He Prepared and  sent me the herbal medicine and I took it as he instructed me, Then he called me 3weeks after to go and have a check-up!! It brought out testing negative, I felt calm a bit, and the doctors day for more clarity I will have to come back after 1week of which I did and tested negative for the second time !! I am so wow and grateful to this doctor whose medicine has NO SIDE EFFECT, there's no special diet when taking the medicine. He also have cure for 
    +HERPES 
    +CANCER
    +HEPATITIS
    +HIV/AIDS
    +PCOS
    +FIBROID
    You can contact him via Email: chiefdrlucky@gmail.com or whatsapp +2348132777335

    ReplyDelete
  5. How I Got My Husband back... Am so excited to share my testimony of a spell caster who brought my husband back to me. My husband and I have been married for about 6 years now. We were happily married with two kids, a boy and a girl. 3 months ago, I started to notice some strange behavior from him and a few weeks later I found out that my husband is seeing someone else. He started coming home late from work, he hardly cared about me or the kids anymore, Sometimes he goes out and doesn't even come back home for about 2-3 days. I did all I could to rectify this problem but all to no avail. I became very worried and needed help. As I was browsing through the Internet one day, I came across a website that suggested that Dr.Odu adebayo can help solve marital problems, restore broken relationships and so on. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted(WhatsApp) him and told him my problems and he told me what to do and I did it and he did a spell for me. 48 hours later, my husband came to me and apologized for the wrongs he did and promised never to do it again. Ever since then, everything has returned back to normal. My family are living together happily again.. All thanks to Dr.odu adebayo If you have any problem contact him and I guarantee you that he will help you. He will not disappoint you. you can WhatsApp him(+2347055287754)or Email him at : poweroflovespell@gmail.com.

    ReplyDelete
  6. People actually believe there is no cure for herpes due to what our medical Doctor do always say to us..but now i know that there is a cure for it Through herbal remedy' i and my boyfriend was once haven herpes type 1&2 i contacted Dr Edidia for herbal treatment and he prepared us some herbs which we takes for some couples of days, and we take it as he says before i am to known' i and my boyfriend was perfectly cure for it and never experience the Outbreaks again. please friends if you have herpes virus and you really want to get rid of it permanently, Kindly contact this great Dr Edidia for herbal treatment and you will get rid of it.. truly truly home remedies works perfectly. EMAIL dredidiaherbalhome@gmail.com cell phone contact +2349074505296 his whatsapp contact is +2349074505296.

    ReplyDelete