There is a crisis of confidence affecting the two old parties, National and Labour, and it is getting worse. Between them presently they are attracting around only 60% support in public opinion polls, the lowest combined vote share for the two big parties since MMP was established in 1996. Each of them is hovering around the 30% mark in popular support, a figure that has been tracking steadily downwards since the start of this year. On that basis, neither can look forward to next year’s election with a great deal of confidence.

The problem is far worse for National than for Labour. At the last election, National attracted just under 39% of the party vote – today it is averaging just over 30%. Labour polled just under 27% at the last election, one of the worst results ever for an incumbent lead party of government under MMP. Today, it has improved slightly but is still averaging barely 30% support in opinion polls.

Just after the last election this column made the point that National’s party vote of 39% was perilously low for a party beginning a term in government. By comparison, when Sir John Key became Prime Minister in 2008, National achieved 47% of the party vote, giving it some political fat for the difficult years ahead. But National’s much weaker 2023 result meant it had no such fat and was therefore always going to find re-election in 2026 to be a difficult challenge.

And so, it is proving to be. The government has made several hard and unpopular decisions over the last two years, against the backdrop of a promised but not yet realised economic upswing. At first, there was some support for what the government was doing – for the first year after the election National was more than holding its own in popular support. But as 2024 ended and 2025 began, confidence in the government’s approach started to wane, and National’s support in opinion polls dropped steadily.

Even so, thanks to strong showings by ACT and more latterly New Zealand First, the coalition government retained enough support to have been able to form a government for all but a couple of brief periods during 2025. Right now, the centre-right and centre-left blocs are virtually tied in the race to become the next government.

Adding to National’s woes in not yet delivering the economic recovery it promised, has been its own political incompetence and increasing self-belief it knows best. 

Faced with a Labour Party shrewdly not saying anything for fear of being caught out, an increasingly feral Green Party and the rancorous divisions threatening Te Pati Māori, National ought to have been able to capitalise heavily. The contrast between a surprisingly cohesive coalition government and a disorganised rabble opposing it should have been easy to draw. And instead of running neck-and-neck with Labour in the opinion polls, National should have been able to open up a comfortable lead by now. That it has failed to do so is a damning indictment of its performance.

Indeed, its own political attack on this disjointed Opposition, or of the failings of the last government, has been virtually non-existent. It has been left largely to ACT and New Zealand First to take the political fight to the Opposition. In a closely contested political market-place National’s apparent unwillingness to enter the fray and confront its opponents head-on has left it looking aloof and out of touch.

Moreover, when National has made policy announcements, its tone has become more and more censorious, speaking down to its critics, and appearing increasingly self-righteous. The recent announcement about a new parental income test for 18- and 19-year-olds seeking the Job Seeker Allowance, ended up being a lecture from the Prime Minister about how parents should raise their children. In today’s difficult circumstances for many households, that was never going to be a winning approach.

But if National’s time to remain the lead party of government after the next election is running out, there are so far no signs of a building groundswell of support for a Labour-led alternative. Both parties are currently polling around 10% below the level they will require to be confident of being able to lead a future government. Neither is so far showing any sign it knows how to boost their support to that required level. Instead, both seem comfortable relying on their respective potential support partners gaining sufficient support to enable them to cobble together some sort of governing coalition after the election.

This is not political leadership as we know it, nor as we deserve. Drifting to power on the back of support for other parties does not demonstrate the leadership New Zealand needs to resolve its long-term economic and social difficulties. Yet that is the fate to which National and Labour appear increasingly content to consign the country, which explains why their stars look set to continue to wane.