Christopher Luxon's mentor Sir John Key quickly and successfully transitioned from international businessman to national political leader when he became Prime Minister. Luxon, on the other hand, is still struggling to do so. And nor is it clear that he even wants to.

 

Key's smooth transition occurred because he was both driven, and a sponge for new knowledge. He knew what he wanted to achieve, and was always eager to learn the best political ways of doing so.

 

Although Luxon is no less driven than Key, and just as personable when interacting with people, he seems far more rigid in his self-belief that he does not need to adjust his perspective to fit the norms of the political environment in which he now operates. As his leadership has come more constantly under the microscope there have been repeated suggestions that he often does not follow or in some cases even read official advice or briefings, instead of always trusting his own instincts and experiences.

 

The upshot has been that he has not made the transition from successful business leader to effective Prime Minister, the way Key did. And nor is he therefore likely to enjoy the same lengthy period in office as Key. Luxon's comment to an apparently taken aback Tova O'Brien on TVNZ"s Breakfast earlier this week that he saw his role as "CEO of New Zealand" shows how little he has moved on from the days when he used to run an airline.

 

Being Prime Minister is not just another corporate assignment, nor should it be treated as such. A successful Prime Minister is, in corporate terms, a combination of the roles of chairman of the board and chief executive, a point Key quickly grasped, but which Luxon has not.

 

As well as running the government, Prime Ministers are expected to provide its vision and overall direction. They should espouse a country's hopes and aspirations, not merely tick off achievements on a quarterly spread sheet. Successful Prime Ministers set a country's course, and then invite or enthuse the public to join them on the journey. 

 

From the quirky national cycleways plan to the unsuccessful proposal to change the national flag, Key was constantly looking at innovative ways to excite New Zealanders' self-awareness and national pride and create a sense of national enthusiasm. Under Luxon, there has been none of that, just an inexorable grimness as the country confronts a tough economic situation, although no less challenging than the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis Key inherited when he came to office.

 

Now, with the polls tightening and the full impact of the global fuel crisis intensifying, but yet to be fully felt, the opportunities for Luxon's no-frills leadership to excite, let alone inspire, an ever weary and cynical public are rapidly diminishing. And it is probably too late in the electoral cycle, not to mention a defiance of over 85 years of recent political history, for the National Party to change leaders now and expect to win the upcoming election.

 

This week's Cabinet reshuffle was one of Luxon's last opportunities this term to put a stamp on his government to show he is a forceful national political leader, not just a businessman struggling to be a politician. The reshuffle therefore has a greater significance than merely replacing two Ministers who are retiring at the election. It was the chance to refresh and refocus the government for a potential second term, and will more than likely be judged on the extent to which it is seen to have achieved that.

 

While there is element of refresh and renewal about the new line-up – the promotion of Nicola Grigg who adds Environment Minister to her existing Ministerial roles and the appointment of new Ministers Cameron Brewer and Mike Butterick, although all three are outside Cabinet – are positive nods to the future, the rest of the reshuffle is within existing ranks. It signals a continuation of the government's business as usual approach, rather than any shift in policy. Although that is in keeping with Luxon's style, it is unlikely to do anything to move the dial on current voter perceptions of the National Party.

 

Given the government's deliberately low-key approach to the current fuel crisis, the Budget due at the end of next month now becomes the government's last real occasion to seize control of the political agenda before the election.

 

Whether it does so will come down to how Luxon chooses to portray it. Seeing it as just another stage of his three-year management strategy will probably consign it (and potentially the government) to oblivion. But using the Budget to set the scene for what a second term would look like could set the government up well for the contest ahead.

 

Luxon says he talks to Key most weeks. It is surely time for him to seek Key's advice on getting re-elected, and then to follow that advice.