Prime Minister Christopher Luxon describes the "food for fuel" deal he has just concluded with Singapore as "world leading". While that language may sound unnecessarily Trumpist, the arrangement is certainly a positive one to be celebrated.
It
reflects the ongoing strength of the relationship between Singapore and
New Zealand and is a pragmatic and hopefully long-term response to the
difficult international situation at present. Both countries are committing to
trading commodities that each need, to their mutual benefit.
Singapore’s
pragmatism since the time of Lee Quan Yew in the pursuit of growth and
prosperity and advancing the interests of the city-state is legendary. So it
was no real surprise that it should have shown such an interest in reaching a
deal like this. Especially as since the end of World War II Singapore has
consistently cited New Zealand and Australia as its two most significant
regional partners.
But
the pragmatism that underpins Luxon’s deal has also been a consistent strand in
New Zealand’s trade policy over recent decades. Again, there is a similarity
with Singapore. Both countries have had to deal with changes to British foreign
policy that have adversely affected them. In Singapore’s case, it was Britain’s
winding down and eventual abandonment of its East of Suez policy in the 1960s.
For New Zealand, it was Britain’s decision to join the European Economic
Community in 1973.
Faced
with the double whammy of both losing long-term automatic access for sheep and
dairy products to the British market and the first oil shock after the Yom
Kippur war in 1973, New Zealand, as a small trading nation, faced rapid
economic adjustment. The end of the guaranteed British market meant New Zealand
had to develop and break into established markets elsewhere to sell its primary
products and other manufactured goods. And that meant having to consider new
mutual trading relationships.
Ironically,
in the light of the current international situation, one of its earliest efforts
involved Iran. In 1974, the Rowling government hosted the Shah of Iran on a
state visit to New Zealand during which agreement was reached on New Zealand
exporting lamb, cheese and wool to Iran in return for Iranian oil being
exported to New Zealand.
It
proved to be a highly successful arrangement. By the mid-1970s, Iran was
purchasing around 60% of New Zealand’s lamb exports, and New Zealand had
stability of oil supplies from Iran. However, it fell apart over the years after
the 1979 Iranian Revolution, because the impact of international sanctions on the
new Islamic regime caused severe foreign exchange shortages for Iran, making it
a less reliable trading partner.
In
a similar vein, but much less successfully, New Zealand reached an agreement with
the Soviet Union in the early 1980s to trade dairy products for Lada cars. However,
the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, not to mention the
inferior quality of Lada cars, put paid to this arrangement.
By
contrast, Luxon’s deal with Singapore looks more soundly based. For a start,
there is a measure of political stability in both countries which means it is
likely to endure, whoever is in government in either Singapore or Wellington. Moreover,
there is a historical dimension to New Zealand’s relationship with Singapore
that runs deeper than its relationship with both Iran and the Soviet Union at
the time those deals were concluded. And because of that, the ongoing
relationship is much more multi-faceted.
Over
the years, many New Zealand politicians have spoken enviously of Singapore’s
economic development and sought to apply its lessons to New Zealand’s somewhat
less stellar economic development and resilience. Since 2000, Singapore and New
Zealand have had a free trade agreement, the Closer Economic Partnership, and
the "food for fuel" arrangement will be incorporated into this
agreement. Again, this should provide greater certainty for its future
viability than the earlier agreements.
It
seems likely that the United States’ demolition of the rules-based approach that
has underpinned international relations since 1945 will lead to more direct
country-to-country and regional economic and political arrangements. In that
regard, New Zealand’s experience in reaching this deal with Singapore should
serve it well in reaching similar deals with other regional partners.
This
arrangement is not just a “nice to have”. Rather, the "food for fuel"
deal is a vital part of the jigsaw of our future approach to trade and
international relations.
Taken
together, the “food for fuel” deal and the free trade agreement signed with
India earlier on Luxon’s current overseas trip, make last week one of the most
significant for a New Zealand government in recent years.
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