Parliament rose late last Saturday evening after a marathon period of Urgency passing legislation relating to last week's Budget and other matters. This was not unusual – Parliament usually goes into Urgency for a couple of days after a Budget.
Nor is it unusual for Parliament to
begin a three-week recess, as it has done now, once the post-Budget Urgency has
finished. This annual recess is normally the time when Ministers get out and
around the country to promote the Budget, and when the Opposition sets out its
response. It is often also the time when major problems with some of the Budget
policies come to light, and when governments are forced into hurried amendments
or even backdowns.
What is perhaps a little unusual
following this year’s Budget is the low level of public and political reaction
to it. Aside from Hipkins' initial response of "more cuts, more pain, and
higher costs", there has been no more substantive critique from the Labour
Party. The same goes for the Green Party that quickly labelled the Budget a
"trashfire" and Te Pati Māori who said, "it was the worst Budget
they've seen". Beyond those initial reactions, the Opposition bloc has so
far had little to say about the Budget. The public response has been similarly
muted, with Dame Lynda Topp's comments against the increase in defence spending
being the most vocal.
And aside from the clarification
about new mothers and postnatal hospital stays, which related to a post-Budget
social media post rather than the Budget announcement itself, there have been
no obvious Budget oversights revealed so far that Ministers have had to
hurriedly tidy up.
The government will of course argue
that this overall lack-lustre response to the Budget was because it has largely
got the balance right, and that people understand that in challenging times, as
we have now, there are no magic wands to be waved or money-trees to be shaken.
Ministers will interpret the comparative quiet following the Budget positively
as they approach the rest of the year and the election campaign ahead. They may
be right, but the next round of opinion polls will confirm whether that is the
case, or, more ominously for the government, whether people have simply
switched off what it has to say.
The biggest post-Budget, although
still relatively low-key, talking point is when will the Labour Party get
around to releasing some policy of its own. For some months now Labour has been
saying it will not release policy until after the Budget when it has had the
chance to assess the Budget numbers. The not unreasonable point is that it does
want to promote election policy that is either unachievable or unaffordable,
prudent constraints that never troubled the previous Labour-led government.
However, while no-one expected a
torrent of Labour policy releases immediately after the Budget, few would have
expected Hipkins’ admission earlier this week that that the Labour caucus has
not yet sat down as a team to review the Budget in detail. He says Labour has “yet
to decide which bits of it we're going to keep and which bits are going to stay
the same." Nevertheless, he says, somewhat contradictorily, that voters “can
expect to see quite a bit from us in the near future.”
The eventual release of Labour
policy, whenever it occurs, may sharpen debate between the two main political
blocs in a way the Budget did not. But, because of the fiscal constraints the
Budget has imposed, its impact may also fall just as flat.
By deferring its major policy announcements
for so long, Labour has created a potential problem for itself. On the one
hand, given its acknowledgment of the need for affordable and achievable
policies and its need to be guided by the Budget numbers, Labour’s eventual offering
may simply be too bland to convince wavering voters it presents a real
alternative to National. Yet, on the other hand, too bold and expensive a set
of promises may persuade sufficient voters it would be too profligate in office
and so tip the balance back the government’s way.
All in all, the likely upshot of
the government’s no-frills, no excitement approach and Labour’s desperation to
be seen as responsible stewards, unlike the last time in office, looks set to
lead to a very stolid and unexciting few months through until the election.
And that may confirm for many struggling
with ongoing cost-of-living pressures that conventional politics no longer
works for them, and that it may be time to look to more radical options.
Mirroring the trend now appearing with the rise of the Reform Party in Britain
and One Nation in Australia, those voters may well turn to the fringes.
In that respect ACT, New Zealand
First, the Greens and Te Pati Māori stand more than ready and willing to accommodate
them, although none is likely to plumb the depths of extremism the way Reform
and One Nation are.
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