“National is now in a fight to save the furniture” screamed Radio New Zealand’s headline following the release of its latest poll this week.

The facts, however, tell a rather different story. We all know that individual opinion polls count for very little. They are but a snapshot in time, and not an indicator of a likely election outcome. And we should all know that the trend of polls over time is a much more reliable informant and indicator of a likely election outcome.

Since the start of this year – across all the polls – National has averaged 30% party vote support. Labour has averaged 32% support; the Green Party 11.3%; New Zealand First 9.5%; ACT 8.2% and Te Pāti Māori 2.5%.

But over the last three months, National’s average party vote support has dropped slightly to 29.1%, and Labour’s has fallen more sharply to 28.3%. Support for the Green Party has risen to 13.3%, mostly at Labour’s expense. New Zealand First and ACT are both up – New Zealand First to 10% and ACT to 9.2%. The Opportunity Party, which burst onto the polling scene around the middle of the year, although down from its peak, has averaged 6.6% support over that time.

At the start of the year, the governing centre-right coalition had an average lead of just under 2% over the centre-left. Today, that lead has increased to just under 3%, although it is potentially not enough to enable it to govern without the support of the Opportunity Party.

The overall picture that emerges is one of very little movement in allegiances throughout the year. Support for the centre-right bloc is marginally higher than it was in January, while support for the centre-left has dropped infinitesimally. In both cases, while there have been support shifts within the blocs, the shift in overall support between the blocs has been less than 1%.

A more telling comparison is with the party vote polling averages of the parties in October 2023, immediately before the last election. Then, National was at 35.2%, nearly 7% higher than its comparable October 2026 average figure. But Labour has improved its position only very slightly over the last three years – its October 2026 average figure was 0.5% above its figure three years earlier.

The Green Party has been doing slightly better – its October 2023 figure was 13.1%, compared with 14.9% today. ACT’s progress has been less dramatic – up from 9.5% in October 2023 to 9.9% today. New Zealand First appears to have been the main beneficiary of the decline in National’s support – its October 2023 average was 6.7%, whereas today it is averaging 10.2%. Support for Te Pāti Māori has more than halved from 2.6% to 1.2% today, although this will be offset to some extent by its deliberate electorate vote only strategy.

Support for the centre-right bloc was averaging 51.4% in October 2023, compared to 43% for the centre-left. Today, the centre-right is averaging just under 3% less than three years ago. In contrast, average support for the centre-left bloc is less than 1% higher than it was in October 2023.

There is a further aspect to these figures. At the election on October 14, 2023, National polled nearly 3% higher than its polling average for the preceding month; Labour, the Green Party, ACT and New Zealand First polled marginally less; while Te Pāti Māori did marginally better. If that pattern is repeated at this year’s election, the centre-right bloc could increase its current lead over the centre-left by nearly 3%, which would likely be enough to enable it to form the next government without requiring the support of the Opportunity Party.

A more conservative and less speculative view would be that all these comparisons show that the overall situation is still extremely close, with every party still having everything to play for over the next week. Despite all the dramas of the last three years, public opinion has moved very little in that time. Overall, things are a long way from Radio New Zealand’s ridiculous attention-seeking headline.

As a public broadcaster, with a hitherto proud reputation for journalistic impartiality and professionalism, it should have followed the old principle of checking a few facts first before displaying its prejudices.