As the government begins its second year in office there has been much comment about the leadership style and tone of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

By his own admission he is a not a career politician. There have been occasions when that lack of political experience has shown. Much has been made of his corporate background, and his penchant for still speaking like a business leader (for example, referring to voters as customers in a recent interview, before correcting himself), and his personal wealth.

Most of this criticism is unfair, because in other ways, Luxon has proved himself to be a quick political learner. He defied most expectations at the time he became National’s leader in 2021 by transforming what was a disorganised rabble then into a viable government in waiting by 2023.

After Labour’s chaotic last three years in office after 2020, Luxon’s election commitment to get New Zealand “back on track” resonated with enough voters to make him Prime Minster after the shortest Parliamentary apprenticeship ever.

Nevertheless, commentators questioned whether he could make the transition from corporate chief executive to Prime Minister, especially when he launched a series of chief executive-style quarterly action plans.

In the first few months, it did not seem to matter. The government was getting on doing things, principally dismantling much of Labour’s legacy. They seemed to be working to a plan and to know what they were doing.

But then came the Budget and the apparent broken promise over funding new cancer drugs. Luxon had committed to funding these in the election campaign. There was surprise that Luxon had not seemed to appreciate the anger of those who felt betrayed by the lack of funding in the Budget.

Luxon moved quickly to correct the omission and eventually delivered a funding package which went well beyond National’s original promise. But to those who were affected it looked more like a hurried backtrack.

However, that was nothing compared to the furore over ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill. While Luxon is correct that such compromises are an inevitable part of MMP coalition government, he is under fire from all sides of the debate for his approach. To some he has been too weak, appearing mealy-mouthed by supporting the Bill’s introduction, but pledging to vote against it later. To others, he has been deliberately insensitive to the damage the Bill is causing to racial harmony in New Zealand. Recent disparaging comments about his leadership from both his coalition partners have not helped either.

The debate on the Treaty Principles Bill goes to the heart of Luxon’s leadership style and tone.  Despite his critics, he is content with the stand he has taken, resolute in his commitment that the government will vote the Bill down when it returns from the select committee next year. He does not appear too worried about what may happen in the meantime, because of his confidence in the ultimate outcome.

In many senses, the tension around the Treaty Principles Bill could have been managed better, or possibly defused slightly, had Luxon at any point given a considered speech about his view of the future direction of Crown/Māori relations, including the role and place of the Treaty. But that is not his style leading some to conclude he is not all that interested in the issue.

From the outset Luxon has been more focused on policy outcomes than reciting lofty policy intents so beloved by his immediate predecessors. That has served him well so far, but as the year has progressed, and the economy has not responded as positively as expected with rising unemployment and more people on benefits, it could be argued that the government needs to start painting a clearer picture about the country’s medium-term prospects and how these will be achieved.

At no stage since he became Prime Minister has Luxon delivered a major speech setting out the sort of country he wants to see New Zealand become over the next twenty years or so, and the various policy choices, over a range of issues, that we need to be taking to get there. It is hardly surprising therefore, given this lack of overall context, that as the tough times continue, more and more New Zealanders are feeling the country is heading in the wrong direction. Now is the time for the Prime Minister to set out a clear sense of direction for voters feeling uncertain about their futures.

Luxon’s mentor, Sir John Key, like Helen Clark before him, always portrayed a clear sense of purpose about what they wanted for New Zealand, which, whether one agreed with them or not, sustained their governments in the tough times, as well as the good ones. That cannot be said at present, which is why the current government is increasingly in danger of being regarded as directionless.

A narrative is beginning to emerge that the government is flinty faced and uncaring. If that view takes firm hold over the next few months, it may prove very difficult to dispel before the next election, no matter how the economy performs.

Luxon and his senior Ministers are clearly convinced they are on the right path to getting the country “back on track” and will likely stick to their task. But, as 2025 unfolds, it will be important to keep doubting New Zealanders onside.

That will be a critical test for Luxon's still developing – but quickly improving – political communication skills.