Should former Labour leader and Minister Andrew Little decide to seek the Wellington Mayoralty later this year he will have a very good, but by no means guaranteed, chance of winning.

Little was regarded in national politics as a reasonable, competent safe pair of hands, although sometimes his passion got the better of him, causing the National-led Government to label him "Angry Andy" after one of his not infrequent outbursts in the House when Leader of the Opposition. However, a stint in government as a senior Minister in the Ardern and Hipkins governments seems to have mellowed him somewhat, although that may be severely tested if he ends up as Mayor having to work another of the fractious Councils Wellington has had to endure over recent triennia.

Nevertheless, Little would bring a level of gravitas to the election race that has been missing so far. None of the already confirmed candidates appeals as having the political heft to look like a credible Mayor-in-waiting. Voters yearning for an alternative to the current leadership might well be relieved at the prospect of Little's candidacy. Some may even take the trouble to vote for him, rather than just complain about how bad things in Wellington have become.

Mayor Tory Whanau's reputation has been virtually destroyed by both her personal performance and the Council's public bickering over the last three years. But until Little's name emerged, she remained a reasonable bet to get re-elected because of the array of uninspiring candidates lining up against her and the Single Transferable Vote system Wellington uses for its elections. While she might not be everyone's first choice, she could well win enough of the preferences of lower polling candidates to get over the line again after two or three rounds of counting.

If he runs, Little will need to have a clear electoral strategy to gain most of the second and third preferences of the already declared anti-Whanau candidates. And he will need to communicate that unambiguously to voters so that they understand fully what they must do to defeat Mayor Whanau. Without such an approach, there is the very real prospect of votes being split and preferences wasted, enabling Whanau to come through the middle for a second term.

Little’s second challenge is to craft a credible election platform on which to campaign. Just being a known name with previous central government experience will not be enough – something former United leader Clive Matthewson, another long-term MP and former Minister discovered when he ran and lost to then-unpopular Dunedin Mayor, Dame Sukhi Turner, in that city’s 1998 Mayoral election. Jim Anderton had the same experience as a former Deputy Prime Minister running against previously unpopular Sir Bob Parker in Christchurch in 2010, although that result was heavily influenced by Parker’s forthright leadership in the aftermath of the city’s first major earthquake, just a few weeks before the election.

The problem for Little with policy is two-fold. He has already been critical of the Council’s performance in many areas. However, he will need to be careful in putting forward his policy alternatives not to alienate the Green Party which has endorsed Whanau as its candidate, thereby threatening wider Labour/Green relations in the leadup to next year’s General Election. As a seasoned politician Little should understand that dynamic.

But here is where the second of Little’s problems arises. The votes he will need to chase to win the Mayoralty are not going to come from the centre-left. Disaffection with Whanau and her Council cronies is most pronounced on the centre-right of Wellington politics. It is the votes of those in the leafy suburbs that Little will need to win to become Mayor and his policy package needs to appeal specifically to them. Otherwise, their votes are likely to be split between the motley collection of centre right candidates already in the race and so ensure Whanau’s re-election.

This will be difficult for Little, given his extensive trade union and traditional Labour background. While he has been regarded as a safe pair of hands, he has not been known so far for his ability to work across party lines. For that reason, many of the voters he will need to win over, and who want to see change, will need to be convinced that they can trust Little as a person and that he will deliver the changes they are seeking. If not, they will probably just sit on their hands and not vote in the election, again increasing the prospects of Whanau’s re-election.

On the face of it, both Whanau’s ineptitude and the scatterbrain performance of her Council supporters, who act more like the most extreme and immature of student politicians than responsible Councillors for the capital city, should have ensured the Mayoralty is there for the taking.

However, Wellington’s electoral dynamics are such that what should be a foregone conclusion is not quite that straightforward. It probably explains why so many quality candidates who have been touted as possibilities have ruled out putting their names forward.

Should Little decide to run, he is arguably the best alternative prospect to emerge so far. But he faces an almighty task to turn that prospect into reality, and to become the capital city’s next Mayor.