In the wake of the Christchurch, Seddon and Kaikoura earthquakes a new lexicon and culture developed about earthquake damaged and prone buildings. Red and yellow stickers became pervasive, and across the country many buildings, old and new, deemed to be earthquake risks were summarily demolished.

Many were historic or heritage sites, others were buildings that probably should have been demolished years earlier. The overall effect was to dramatically reshape the appearance of Christchurch and to a lesser extent Wellington, but almost every other town and city has been affected to some extent by building demolitions.

There have been controversies along the way. Dubious building practices of the 1960s and 1970s have been savagely exposed in many instances. In other instances, decisions to restore at risk or damaged significant buildings have proven financially disastrous. The stalled restoration of Christchurch Cathedral stands out as the obvious example, but the strengthening of the old Wellington Town Hall, closed as unsafe in 2013, is far more dramatic and expensive. Originally forecast to cost around $150 million, the latest estimate is around $329 million, with a completion date of mid-2026, and the building being reopened in early 2027.

There have also been many examples of buildings deemed to have met earthquake safety standards in the 1990s and early 2000s being declared non-compliant following law changes in 2017. The costs to many building owners having to meet updated and constantly changing standards has been prohibitive. Many buildings have been abandoned and left to become local eyesores.

Commercial and domestic insurance costs have risen sharply over these years, because of steeply rising insurance claims to meet the cost of remediation, and the subsequent impact of those claims on international reinsurance.  

Nonetheless, in the wake of the damage wrought by the Christchurch, Seddon and Kaikoura earthquakes and the subsequent revelations about the general level of unsafe buildings across the country that had not been taken all that seriously for too many years, the sweeping approach to identifying, then strengthening or demolishing unsafe buildings was inevitable and understandable.

The idea that people might be living and working in homes or buildings that posed a daily threat to their safety was socially unacceptable. But the mounting costs to homeowners and businesses of meeting the costs making homes and buildings earthquake compliant has become increasingly difficult to sustain.

Against that background the government’s announcement of a new, risk-based approach to earthquake strengthening is a positive step forward. Not only is it estimated that it will save building owners across the country around $8.2 billion, but it is also expected to reduce the risk to community safety posed by derelict buildings. Under the changes, the previous one size fits all national approach will be replaced, with much greater emphasis on local seismic risk.

So, Auckland, Northland and the Chatham Islands will be exempted from earthquake standards because of their low seismic risk, while tighter standards will be introduced for Coastal Otago and Dunedin. In Wellington, long considered the country’s most at-risk earthquake centre, the changes are expected to have a positive effect, reducing the number buildings classified as earthquake risk by about half, and saving city building owners around $1 billion in remediation costs.

However, a perverse consequence of the changes may be that Wellington’s genuine outstanding eyesore, the City to Sea Bridge may now be saved at the eleventh hour from the Court-mandated demolition it so richly deserves. On the other hand, the new standards might be the saviour of a genuine heritage treasure, National Park’s Chateau Tongariro, which has been closed and facing an uncertain future for some years now.

While the changes have generally been welcomed as pragmatic and realistic in today’s circumstances, which should be good news for the government and its fight to reduce compliance costs where it can, they are not without political risk. For example, there is no suggestion that they will lead to a stabilisation, let alone reduction, in insurance premia any time soon. Also, much care will need to be taken by both central and local government in the application of the new rules to ensure that less restrictive standards are not opening up short-cuts or loopholes in building safety standards that could have disastrous consequences next time a major earthquake strikes.

Announcing the changes Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk acknowledged this point when he said protecting human life must remain the top priority, but a fairer balance was needed between cost and the real risks buildings posed.

However, unfortunately it may take the next disaster to prove whether the balance has now been struck correctly.