It is frequently said that the real test of political leadership comes in a crisis.

Dame Jacinda Ardern transformed a hitherto ho-hum Prime Ministership that had been looking decidedly one-term with her response to the Christchurch Mosque attacks in 2019. Her handling of the Covid19 outbreak a year later cemented her reputation as a compassionate and empathetic leader who was good in a crisis.

In both tests, Ardern faced no choice but to act. She was in office and the responsibility fell to her. But there have been other occasions when leaders have come into office because there has been a crisis and they have been seen as the best person to deal with it. The obvious example is Winston Chuirchill’s replacing Neville Chamberlain in Britain in 1940 when invasion by Germany seemed imminent.

Christopher Luxon’s response to the Mount Maunganui landslip has been impressive so far. He has spent a lot of time at the site, meeting and comforting the families of the victims and encouraging and supporting the emergency rescue workers, quietly and genuinely without grandstanding. His demeanour in Parliament when the House resumed this week was in a similar vein – a mixture of compassion and sorrow, commitment to support those who have been affected by the tragedy, and a willingness to thoroughly examine all aspects of what happened to make sure such events do not occur again.

While Luxon has done well so far, the real test of his leadership is yet to come. Fine words and sentiments in the wake of a disaster have an immediate calming effect, but their true worth is determined by the level of the response that follows.

When Cyclone Gabrielle occurred in February 2023, then Prime Minister Chris Hipkins won plaudits for his immediate response. His personal ratings soared and boosted his political honeymoon as a then newly appointed Prime Minister. But by April, when it was clear that the government’s response was falling short of the expectations Hipkins had created, public support plummeted and Labour began the downward spiral which culminated in its heavy election defeat in October 2023.

Luxon needs to be wary of falling into the same trap. The government’s response therefore must be measured, realistic and substantially achieved before the election in November. In this regard, the appointment of Chris Penk as Associate Emergency Management Minister is a good move. Through the way in which he has reformed building regulations Penk has built a reputation for competence and an ability to cut through complex red tape to achieve workable, practical solutions. Bringing him in to assist the Emergency Management Minister shows the government is taking its responsibilities in the wake of the landslip very seriously.

Penk’s deftness will be important in facilitating the government’s ongoing dealings with the families of the victims and the wider local community whose lives and business have also been disrupted. At the same time, the government will be expected to be resolute in getting to the bottom of why the tragedy unfolded the way it did, and in identifying where there were systemic and operational failings by the various agencies involved.  

Luxon has already made it clear he thinks there should be some form of independent investigation of the circumstances, a view apparently not yet completely shared by the Tauranga City Council. But Luxon is absolutely correct. Even with the best will in the world, the Council cannot be left to effectively investigate the competence and propriety of its actions itself. Its findings, however critical, would simply lack public credibility.

The government should therefore look to the example of the Christchurch earthquakes and establish a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Mount Maunganui landslip. A Royal Commission, comprising suitably qualified and independent members, would be an appropriate level of response to a disaster of this magnitude and a clear indication of how seriously the government is treating the issue.

It should be charged with looking at all aspects of the event, including the adequacy of the Council’s monitoring and regulatory procedures beforehand and the effectiveness and co-ordination of the post-event emergency response. A Royal Commission could also look beyond the specific circumstances of Tauranga and consider whether the same potential risks exist ion other parts of the country. And it should be charged with making an interim report before the end of the year.

As with all major natural disasters, the country has come together for a brief period of shared grief and shock. That will not last, and people will soon get on with their lives again. But while immediate memories may begin to fade, the lessons learnt, and how the government and the other authorities responded, will linger longer in the public mind. And the judgment of whether Luxon is a good leader in a crisis will be determined less by his words and actions in the immediate aftermath than by the extent to which he is seen to have honoured the commitments he made.

The announcement this year’s general election will be held on November 7^th should come as no surprise. It is the date least encumbered by other events, and the last realistic date which gives post-election government formation talks the best chance of being completed before the Christmas break. Parliament is required to meet no later than two months after an election – in this case by January 7, 2027 – so an early November election makes it possible for the new Parliament to be convened in probably the week before Christmas.

Aside from heralding the informal start of the election campaign – even though the election itself is still over 40 weeks away – the formal announcement of the election date also kicks off some other processes. The most significant of these is the Period of Restraint. This is a bureaucratic device, with little to no constitutional standing, which has been engineered by officials over recent years to constrain governments from using the instruments of state for too much overt political work in the lead-up to an election.

The Period of Restraint has come to be applied for the last three months before an election – in this year’s case from August 7^th. Under this specious device, governments are not expected to make significant appointments or initiate new policies or information campaigns during the three months prior to an election. That completely overlooks the reality that governments are elected to govern for a full three-year term and that they retain their full authority until election day.

The upshot is that for the last three months before an election, the government of the day is effectively reduced to caretaker status. When the two months or so of post-election negotiations is added, the period of caretaker rule could be up five months or more, to the bureaucrats’ delight.

Parliament begins sitting for the year next week. According to the timetable approved by Parliament before last Christmas it will sit for 22 weeks (66 days) before rising on September 24^th and being formally dissolved on October 1^st for the election. But five of those sitting weeks come after the Period of Restraint begins, leaving just 51 sitting days available to the government to introduce new legislation to progress its agenda.

When the time allowed for set-piece debates like the Budget Debate, the Estimates and the Prime Minister’s statement is factored in, the time available to the government to progress its legislation, without resorting to Urgency, or extended sitting hours, could reduce to much nearer 42 to 45 sitting days.

Although the Minister of Finance has not yet announced a date for the presentation of the 2026 Budget, the Parliamentary timetable suggests May 28^th is a likely date. Parliament goes into a two-week recess after then, which will allow Ministers time to get around the country promoting the Budget (and the government generally) before Parliament resumes in the latter half of June.

These factors were obviously at the back of the Prime Minister’s mind as he developed his recent state of the nation speech. The tight Parliamentary timetable meant he needed to be careful about the commitments he made. Of the three priorities he identified, only resource management and planning law reform is likely to be completed before the Period of Restraint commences. The Prime Minister acknowledged that the government’s NCEA reforms were on a longer timescale and that National’s plans to increase employer and employee Kiwisaver contributions were something the party would campaign on at the election, rather than introduce this year.

The government will be keen to progress through Parliament as many as possible of the large number of other government Bills currently before select committees before the House rises for the election. But any new legislation introduced this year is unlikely to pass before the election, unless it is urgent or enjoys cross-party support. Rather, the government’s priority will be clearing its legislative decks, and leaving as little Parliamentary time as possible for the Opposition to promote the issues it sees as important.

Now that the election date has been announced, all parties will be gearing their political, organisational, and fundraising activities around it. Many are already well advanced in their candidate selection processes. The closing date for nominations to stand for Parliament will be October 8^th and party lists must be completed and lodged with the Electoral Commission by midday that day.

The timing of the election also has significant implications for voters. Under changes to the Electoral Act last December, voters will now no longer be able to enrol to vote on election day, as had been the case since Labour’s 2019 amendments. This year, the closing date for voter enrolment will be October 26^th, thirteen days before the election, and the same day early voting begins. If the trend of recent elections continues, most voters will have voted by election day.

Many voters will also be voting in new electorates following the redrawing of electorate boundaries by the Representation Commission promulgated last August to reflect population shifts identified in the last Census.

While all these dates define many of the formal elements of the general election, there will still be many twists and turns to go through before the next government is installed and the normal processes of government resume.

All of which contribute to the fascination of politics.