It is frequently said that the real test of political leadership comes in a crisis.

Dame Jacinda Ardern transformed a hitherto ho-hum Prime Ministership that had been looking decidedly one-term with her response to the Christchurch Mosque attacks in 2019. Her handling of the Covid19 outbreak a year later cemented her reputation as a compassionate and empathetic leader who was good in a crisis.

In both tests, Ardern faced no choice but to act. She was in office and the responsibility fell to her. But there have been other occasions when leaders have come into office because there has been a crisis and they have been seen as the best person to deal with it. The obvious example is Winston Chuirchill’s replacing Neville Chamberlain in Britain in 1940 when invasion by Germany seemed imminent.

Christopher Luxon’s response to the Mount Maunganui landslip has been impressive so far. He has spent a lot of time at the site, meeting and comforting the families of the victims and encouraging and supporting the emergency rescue workers, quietly and genuinely without grandstanding. His demeanour in Parliament when the House resumed this week was in a similar vein – a mixture of compassion and sorrow, commitment to support those who have been affected by the tragedy, and a willingness to thoroughly examine all aspects of what happened to make sure such events do not occur again.

While Luxon has done well so far, the real test of his leadership is yet to come. Fine words and sentiments in the wake of a disaster have an immediate calming effect, but their true worth is determined by the level of the response that follows.

When Cyclone Gabrielle occurred in February 2023, then Prime Minister Chris Hipkins won plaudits for his immediate response. His personal ratings soared and boosted his political honeymoon as a then newly appointed Prime Minister. But by April, when it was clear that the government’s response was falling short of the expectations Hipkins had created, public support plummeted and Labour began the downward spiral which culminated in its heavy election defeat in October 2023.

Luxon needs to be wary of falling into the same trap. The government’s response therefore must be measured, realistic and substantially achieved before the election in November. In this regard, the appointment of Chris Penk as Associate Emergency Management Minister is a good move. Through the way in which he has reformed building regulations Penk has built a reputation for competence and an ability to cut through complex red tape to achieve workable, practical solutions. Bringing him in to assist the Emergency Management Minister shows the government is taking its responsibilities in the wake of the landslip very seriously.

Penk’s deftness will be important in facilitating the government’s ongoing dealings with the families of the victims and the wider local community whose lives and business have also been disrupted. At the same time, the government will be expected to be resolute in getting to the bottom of why the tragedy unfolded the way it did, and in identifying where there were systemic and operational failings by the various agencies involved.  

Luxon has already made it clear he thinks there should be some form of independent investigation of the circumstances, a view apparently not yet completely shared by the Tauranga City Council. But Luxon is absolutely correct. Even with the best will in the world, the Council cannot be left to effectively investigate the competence and propriety of its actions itself. Its findings, however critical, would simply lack public credibility.

The government should therefore look to the example of the Christchurch earthquakes and establish a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Mount Maunganui landslip. A Royal Commission, comprising suitably qualified and independent members, would be an appropriate level of response to a disaster of this magnitude and a clear indication of how seriously the government is treating the issue.

It should be charged with looking at all aspects of the event, including the adequacy of the Council’s monitoring and regulatory procedures beforehand and the effectiveness and co-ordination of the post-event emergency response. A Royal Commission could also look beyond the specific circumstances of Tauranga and consider whether the same potential risks exist ion other parts of the country. And it should be charged with making an interim report before the end of the year.

As with all major natural disasters, the country has come together for a brief period of shared grief and shock. That will not last, and people will soon get on with their lives again. But while immediate memories may begin to fade, the lessons learnt, and how the government and the other authorities responded, will linger longer in the public mind. And the judgment of whether Luxon is a good leader in a crisis will be determined less by his words and actions in the immediate aftermath than by the extent to which he is seen to have honoured the commitments he made.