This week’s Taxpayers Union/Curia poll attracted far more attention than a single poll should. This was principally because it recorded support for Labour now being below what it was at the time of its defeat at the last election. However, at their best, polls are but a snapshot in time, with the long-term trends they disclose being far more significant than the individual result. So, it would be unwise to treat this Taxpayers Union/Curia poll, or any other single poll for that matter, in isolation from the wider context.

The significance of the Taxpayers Union/Curia poll is that it confirms a trend that has been apparent since about April – and that is bad news for Labour. Across all the polls since then, support for Labour has been in steady decline, while support for National has risen ever so slightly. The main beneficiary of the fall in Labour’s support appears to have been the Green Party, and more latterly, the Opportunity Party.

Given that the fall-off in support for Labour has been clear from all the public (and presumably Labour’s private) polling for nearly six months, Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ response that he was just getting into campaign stride was more than a little surprising, to say the least. There are, after all, just over eight weeks until the election. Advance voting begins in six weeks, and just over 45% of voters voted early at the 2023 election. So, the time for Hipkins to hit the decks running is rapidly running out.

It is becoming all too reminiscent of Labour’s unsuccessful and lack-lustre 2023 campaign. As the incumbent government at the time, Labour was fighting an essentially defensive campaign, both regarding its record since 2017, and, like today, strong attacks from National and its allies about hidden tax agendas. Labour’s current floundering in the wake of National’s somewhat inaccurate nine new taxes campaign has a strong sense of déjà vu about it. Compounding Labour’s difficulties then was Hipkins’ being laid low with Covid19 in the latter stages of the campaign.

Although Hipkins must shoulder the primary responsibility for Labour’s current shortcomings, he is not solely to blame. The bigger problem is the wider public perception that the Labour Caucus lacks talent. While there are likely capable people in the lower ranks of the Caucus, they are not being publicly promoted. Except for finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds, the senior ranks of potential Ministers still look too much like the tired, poor performers that were thrown out in 2023.

Indeed, the probable main reason Hipkins has survived the current Parliamentary term as party leader is the lack of a credible alternative. Edmonds has consistently said she does not want the job, while the other often mentioned contender, Kieran McAnulty, is simply too rough and ready and deliberately provincial to be likely to appeal to the middle-class urban voters Labour needs to attract to get across the electoral line.

In any case, as National came to realise with Christopher Luxon’s leadership, it is simply too late in the electoral cycle to change leaders. Some have drawn parallels to 2017 when Andrew Little stood down in favour of Jacinda Ardern just over seven weeks before the election. But this is not 2017 and there is no Ardern standing in Labour’s wings today.

Therefore, the obvious deficiencies in Labour’s Caucus notwithstanding, the party’s fate at the coming election will all come down to Hipkins’ performance over the next few weeks. He has been promising a strong campaign with exciting new policies for some time now, but to date there has been little evidence of it.

First, Labour was waiting for this year’s Budget numbers to be released before making firm policy commitments. That came and went in late May, with little response form Labour. Now Labour says it is waiting for the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) due to be released on 29 September before making final commitments.

But time is running out for Hipkins and Labour. Labour keeps promising that “Better Starts Now” but not just yet. The more it says good things are coming the more suspicious and weary voters get that when opened Labour’s policy cupboard eventually opened, it will be largely bare.

What should be of greater concern to Labour is that elections are rarely decided on the spur of the moment. The trend line from all the polls has been clear for some time now. Not only has Labour’s support been falling for some months, but the centre-right bloc’s lead over the centre-left has been steady and slightly increasing since early this year. The advent of the Opportunity Party has only slightly dented these trends. So, the electoral die may well therefore have been cast.

When all the hype is stripped away, and the facts are confronted, Hipkins still faces a mighty uphill battle. His plaintive defence at a meeting with his own constituents this week in what was remarkably his first public campaign meeting that he is “just getting warmed up” simply smacks of too little, far too late. After nearly three years of apparent inaction in Opposition, the odds are firming against him that he can turn Labour’s campaign into a winning one.