Rawiri Waititi is absolutely correct when he says there will be no one-term government without Te Pati Māori. At no point since the last election have Labour and the Green Party been polling strongly enough to contemplate forming a government without the inclusion of Te Pati Māori. And even if Te Pati Māori were to be involved, there have only been three occasions, according to the polls, since the last election when the left bloc would have had the numbers to form a government, were there to have been an election.

The problem with Waititi's assertion is not the accuracy of his observation, but rather the sheer unlikelihood of its being able to be achieved. One of the main reasons why Waititi’s claim is not viable is Te Pati Māori itself. Since the high point of wresting the Tamaki Makarau seat from Labour in last year’s by-election the party has been engaged in its own self-destruction, culminating in this week’s announcement by Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi that she is leaving to form her own party. This is despite her having won a Court battle earlier this year to be reinstated to Te Pati Māori, after the party expelled her and Takuta Ferris last year.

With speculation swirling about the status of other Te Pati Māori MPs, it is still far from clear what state the party will be in to fight the election later this year, let alone contribute to any process of government formation post-election. The dysfunction that has gripped the party over the last few months is showing no signs of abating or being resolved, raising doubts about its capacity to conduct a credible election campaign, let alone remain a viable political force afterwards.

But even if Te Pati Māori can put its divisions behind it, which still seems unlikely, the bigger question arises as to whether Labour would be prepared to accommodate it within a governing arrangement. Although Labour looks to have no path to government without Te Pati Māori, Chris Hipkins has so far been disparaging of Te Pati Māori’s readiness to be part of a government and keeps refusing to say whether the two parties could work together.

He knows that if he were to embrace Te Pati Māori alongside the Greens, he would potentially risk shedding more conservative Labour supporters, most probably to New Zealand First, thus outweighing any potential gain. Yet he also knows the logical truth of Waititi’s assertion. Nevertheless, as increasingly seems his wont on so many other issues, Hipkins will continue to sit on the fence for as long as possible.

At the same time, Labour is actively campaigning to regain the Māori electorates. It has assembled an impressive slate of candidates to contest those electorates, which will mean the outcome in none of those seats can be taken for granted. But if Labour wins all those seats, which it says is its objective, it may be counter-productive to its overall election prospects.

Unless accompanied by a substantial increase in its party vote, Labour’s winning all or most of the Māori electorates would simply mean a likely reduction in the number of list seats it wins, thus not helping its overall chances to form a government. And if Te Pati Māori loses all its electorate seats, all party votes which it attracts will be wasted, as it is unlikely to cross the 5% party vote threshold.

Labour’s Māori electorates strategy therefore looks to be driven more by a desire for vengeance than common sense. Given that its strategy is driven by Willie Jackson, that is probably no surprise, but it is unlikely to enhance Labour’s prospects of leading the next government. It has never come to terms with the reasons for its rejection in most of the Māori electorates at the last election. Despite the impressive candidates it has selected to contest the Māori electorates this year, Labour still seems not to have learned the lesson so bluntly delivered at the Tamaki Makarau by-election last year, that it no longer has any historic right to assume those seats are its own.

Indeed, the arrogance which Jackson typifies so strongly may well prove to be one of the strongest factors in favour of Te Pati Māori, especially amongst younger Māori voters, fed up with years of Labour’s lazy indifference to their concerns. They are unlikely to take kindly to Labour’s renewed interest in the Māori electorates, nor to any suggestion that their future advancement lies inherently with a Labour-led government.

Nevertheless, none of these machinations detracts from the fundamental point Waititi has been making. But each contributes to making it even more unlikely that his ambition to see a one-term government can be realised.