Since 1996 no new party has entered Parliament without either a sitting or former MP leading it. The Conservative Party in 2014 came close to doing so, scoring about 4% of the party vote, but ultimately failed and never attained that level of support again.

With some opinion polls currently suggesting the Opportunity Party is inching closer to the cusp of the 5% threshold that sobering reality remains a daunting challenge. As with the Conservative Party and other small parties before them, potential voters will have to be persuaded that the Opportunity Party can make a difference, and that therefore a vote for it would not be wasted.

That raises the broader position of the Party's positioning. The Opportunity Party has correctly positioned itself as a centrist Party, able to work with either the right or the left blocs. But voters like to know which side of the ledger the Party they support is really on.

Saying that a Party can work with either side of politics can confuse voters – believe me. When UnitedFuture's leader, I was often asked whose side I was "really" on – National’s or Labour's. When I replied neither, because I was on UnitedFuture's side, and our support for either a National- or Labour-led government was based solely on any policy agreements we could reach with them, I was accused of being an unprincipled opportunist.

One often hears a similar sentiment expressed in respect of New Zealand First today. And yet people say they quite like the idea of a party that can bridge gap between National and Labour. But despite MMP having been in place for thirty years now, many people still view politics through the old National/Labour prism.

In part this is due to both the major parties remaining too tribal to fully trust a smaller party that says it can work with either side in government. I was acutely aware of this when working as part of Labour- and National-led governments between 2002 and 2017. The reactions of both National and Labour to New Zealand First today show that sentiment remains a powerful part of contemporary politics.

That factor will be even more relevant in the event the Opportunity Party makes it to Parliament, especially given its lack of prior Parliamentary experience. Luxon's dismissal this week of the Opportunity Party as really a vote for Labour and the Green Party shows that nothing has changed in this regard. And sowing voter doubt about the Opportunity Party's "true" alignment in turn raises the question for voters of whether a vote for the Party can be risked.

So far, the Opportunity Party has had a relatively easy ride, because neither of the major parties has taken seriously the possibility it may win seats in Parliament. However, that may be changing now. The Party's rising poll results mean it will become subject to far more attacks from all the other parties as a potential risk to their support levels. How it responds will have a major influence on how voters perceive its credibility and whether it is worth voting for.

Its recent decision to change tack to focus on winning the Mount Albert electorate is a sensible one. After all, if it wins an electorate seat it will be deemed to have crossed the party vote threshold and every party vote it receives will count towards numbers of seats in Parliament. That would immediately reduce the wasted vote argument the other parties will throw at it because it would have crossed the party vote threshold without having to reach the 5% figure. But winning the Mount Albert seat – held by Labour the last eighty years – will be an uphill battle and cannot be assumed.

This will be the Opportunity Party’s fourth election. To date, it has provided novelty value, and until now has not threatened to gain representation. But this year may be its best chance to break through and do so. In the wake of political uncertainty the world over, it may benefit from being a party of fresh faces and new ideas that has come along at just the right time. But equally this election could also be its last chance.

However, even if it succeeds, the Opportunity Party will be in for a rude shock. It says nobly and admirably it wants to refocus the election campaign and politics generally to be about the best policy options for the future. But none of the other parties has such a grand vision – for them, elections are much more about doing all they can to win and retain political power. They are unlikely to welcome the well-meaning newcomer with open arms.

Therefore, should it cross the threshold, it will have to quickly adjust to the real political world where power and its retention are what matters to long-term Parliamentary parties, not earnest, lofty policy debates. What concessions it gains will be at best grudging, and only because its numbers might be needed to form a government. And if not, the Opportunity Party could face three unforgiving years of irrelevance – in Parliament but with few chances to achieve much.

For better or worse, the cruel reality remains that although many new and well-motivated parties have tried to get into Parliament over the years, few have succeeded. Persuading enough voters that it can break the mould and succeed where others have not, and so change the nature of politics, as it promises, is still a mighty hurdle for the Opportunity Party to overcome.

But this year is potentially its best prospect of doing so.