The rock and the hard place that has defined New Zealand’s foreign policy for the last decade or so is getting ever sharper and more uncomfortable.

Since the thaw in relations with the United States after the 1980s nuclear row, New Zealand has been a reluctant friend. Consistent with what it holds to be an independent foreign policy, New Zealand has supported the United States on some issues and opposed it on others. For example, it provided significant military and operational support to the United States-led Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in the early 2000s but opposed the invasion of Iraq in 2003 because it had not had the approval of the United Nations.

More recently, New Zealand opposed the United States’ intervention in Venezuela as not in accordance with international law. And although it had forthrightly condemned the recent actions of the Iranian government, New Zealand stopped short of explicitly supporting the United States-led attacks on Iran earlier this year.

While this nuanced ambivalence has served New Zealand’s interests well in recent years, it is easy to see how the United States, especially the current idiosyncratic Administration, might feel that New Zealand is at best a “fair-weather” friend. In this context, the recent comments by the War Secretary Hegseth that New Zealand was “freeloading” off the United States by not more significantly increasing its defence spending, and the new United States’ Ambassador’s expressed “disappointment” at the continuation of our long-standing anti-nuclear policy are not just idle comments. They clearly reflect a deeper United States’ frustration at New Zealand’s continued broadly friendly, but carefully distanced and wary approach to the bilateral relationship.

There are many reasons for this, beyond the anti-nuclear policy, which although still a sore point for the United States is largely a red herring, given the infrequence of nuclear ship visits here prior to the 1987 ban being enacted. For example, promoting two-way trade has long been an issue – from the time then Finance Minister Walter Nash unsuccessfully proposed a “reciprocal trade treaty” during talks in Washington in 1939, through to the more concerted, but equally unsuccessful, attempts from the early 2000s to secure a free trade agreement. Against that backdrop, President Trump’s imposition of “Liberation Day” tariffs on New Zealand’s exports to the United States was a doubly bitter pill for New Zealand to swallow.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s relations with China have been slowly expanding since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1972. Improved political, cultural and economic links over the years led to a free trade agreement – China’s first ever – being concluded between the two countries in 2008 and ever closer political ties. The free trade agreement has been an outstanding success, so much so that China is now New Zealand’s major trading partner.

But at the same time New Zealand seems to have been none too bothered about being drawn ever more closely into China’s expanding political web, to the extent that successive governments have been almost pathologically scared stiff of saying anything that might upset China and threaten our economic security. And consequently, China, while occasionally making warm noises about how much it values its links with New Zealand, largely does as it wishes in this region, and places little value on anything New Zealand has to say. Whenever New Zealand dares pluck up the courage to offer even the mildest criticisms of Chinese policy, it is firmly rebuked by Beijing for interfering in China’s domestic affairs.

This year alone China has conducted unannounced naval exercises in the Tasman Sea, close to Australian territorial waters, and conducted a live missile firing test in the Pacific with only the briefest advance warning to New Zealand. On both occasions all New Zealand could do was stand by meekly and watch.

The sad, unintended outcome of our foreign policy is that at a time of heightened global and regional instability we are not trusted as reliable or committed by the United States and are being walked all over by China. Even our one true ally, Australia, has its frustrations with what it considers New Zealand’s less than full commitment to regional security.

As an independent nation, New Zealand has every right to pursue an independent foreign policy and should not abandon that ambition lightly. But at the same time, it must appreciate that it is not operating in a vacuum, and that there will be consequences, whatever options it chooses. The combination of an increasingly unpredictable and volatile United States, and a more activist China playing out their quest for global supremacy in our part of the world creates new pressures for countries like New Zealand.

That is why the challenges confronting our current foreign policy have become more pronounced. On the one hand, New Zealand cannot afford to become seen as too closely aligned with either of the superpower rivals, despite its economic reliance on China, and likely increasing pressure from the United States to modify its stance. But on the other hand, it cannot allow itself to be seen by either as irrelevant, or unreliable.

As the rock and the hard place become ever more uncomfortable, New Zealand needs to strike a new balance between upholding its independent foreign policy and being taken seriously as a regional player by the superpowers. Achieving that balance and protecting our national integrity will require our politicians and diplomats to exercise even more skilful diplomacy and careful leadership over the next few years than they have already done.

Yet it remains a goal worth striving for.