For most of the ten months since the change
of government, the National Party has had the best of times. Thrust
unexpectedly into the role of Opposition, it has settled to its task, with few
outward stumbles. It has managed a leadership transition without too much fuss,
and has consistently remained top of the opinion polls. It has enjoyed harrying
a constantly fumbling government and has dented the reputations of more than a
few Ministers along the way. So far, so good, but the good times are coming to
an end, and National is beginning to look exposed.
Typically, the first few months of a new
government's term are months where the equally new Opposition can have some
fun. Freed from responsibility, their former Ministers will still be more in
touch with their old portfolios than their successors, still coming to grips
with the demands of their new roles, and the overall challenge of being in
government. But there comes a time when the momentum inevitably shifts in
favour of the new government and its agenda, ushering in with it the perception
of the Opposition as yesterday's people. For National, that time is now.
The fallout from the Leader of the
Opposition's regional tour and one or two misjudgments by senior members are
showing that National is starting to make heavy weather of its role, despite
the government's chronic bumbling. That is relatively normal for this time of
the electoral cycle (although governments are usually demonstrating more
competence by now) and the challenge for National is not to get trapped into a
political backwater. To the greatest extent it can, the party needs to be
seeking to lead public debate, not just reacting to everything the government
does.
So, for a start, it needs to stop barking
at every parked car it sees, and focus instead on the issues that matter. A
visionary and well-marketed speech from the leader, setting out a handful of
key principles and the type of party and government he aspires to lead,
followed by the development of some major policy themes to flow from those
would be in order right now. Then, the party needs to reference all its actions
against those, seeking where it can to shift the debate to its agenda and
terms, so promoting the notion that National stands clearly for certain things,
rather than just resolutely opposes everything.
This government seems to have realised far
quicker that, like it or not, we are in a new political environment where the
vitality of new ideas is what counts, even if the practical details still need
time to catch up. There is a general mood against some of the more technocratic
approaches to government of previous years, with voters looking for more signs
of empathy and tolerance from governments, of whatever stripe, than has been
the case until now. To prosper, National has to pick up on these themes, and
become better at their exposition than Labour.
Dismissing this week's Justice Summit as
just a "talkfest" before the discussions were even concluded shows
National still has some way to go on this journey. While they may well be right
on this particular issue, they are failing to recognise that the current
prevailing public mood is more open to such consultative approaches than was
the case previously.
And then there is the question of
personnel. As the current government shows only too well, we now live in an era
where political experience counts for little. Old hands are no longer seen as
wise heads, steady guides on the tiller, or whatever, but impediments to
progress to be moved on. Again, this phenomenon is not limited to New Zealand,
but is an international trend, as, for example, Australia's constantly
revolving Prime Ministerships show. Basically, politicians now get one chance
and, once that is over, there is seldom any coming back. As he looks at his
team, National's leader needs to reflect on that, both in terms of his former
Ministers and longer term inhabitants of the back bench. Some early signs of
fresh blood coming to the fore to replace the placeholders needs to become more
obvious.
Finally, there is the question of future
alliances. This is much more difficult because National does not control this
space, and, in any case, the options are limited. However, any moves to its
right in this regard will cause National more harm than good. For the time
being, the days of the hard right - social and economic - are over, and
National needs to realise that. The path to the future is not to try returning
to the past.
The next few months will tell the strength
of National's story. As they become more removed from the day to day reality of
government, they will have more opportunity to address, define and promote
their agenda and brand. The extent to which they are prepared and able to do
this will determine the extent to which they can be taken as serious contenders
for the next election.
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