There
has been much scoffing and guffawing on this side of the Tasman in the last
week about the brutal public coup within the ruling Liberal Party that saw the
replacement of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison.
All
the traditionally wise voices here opined about how poorly timed and executed
the coup was; how brutal Australian politics have become; and how all this was
the death knell for the current Australian government due to face an election
in a few months. The unspoken undertone was that such crudity and barbarity
would never happen in New Zealand - that we are so much more subtle. Which is a
load of uninformed nonsense, of course - faced with similar situations over the
years our politicians have been just as venal and brutal.
Since
1990, there has been the coup initiated by Mike Moore which toppled Prime
Minister Geoffrey Palmer, just a few weeks before Labour's 1990 election rout.
Then, three years later, was Helen Clark's ouster of Mike Moore, weeks after
the 1993 election where National's record majority of 48 had been reduced to
just one. That was followed by the unsuccessful attempt by senior Labour MPs to
stare down Helen Clark shortly before the 1996 election when Labour was polling
at just 18%.
During
its years in Opposition from 2008 to
2017, Labour stepped up this pace considerably. David Shearer, probably the
best Prime Minister New Zealand never had, was undermined constantly from
within from when he took the leadership in 2011, until he stood down in 2013.
His successor, David Cunliffe, was similarly forced aside, although more
unwillingly, after Labour's third straight defeat in 2014. Andrew Little was
next, surviving for nearly three years, despite poor polls and ongoing Caucus
mutterings, until it all got too much for him in August last year and he
yielded to Jacinda Ardern.
National
has not been immune from such events either. In 1997, Prime Minister Jim Bolger
was met at the airport on his return from a successful overseas visit by senior
Minister Doug Graham to be told that a coup led by Jenny Shipley was underway and
that he did not have the numbers to survive. In 2003, it was Don Brash's turn,
following a series of poor poll showings by then leader, Bill English, and in
2006, after Dr Brash's various peccadillos had been revealed, he was forced to
stand aside to make way for John Key.
So
while the jokes abound about how frequently the Australians change their Prime
Ministers, it is worth recalling that leadership changes also occur frequently
in this country as well. Excluding long-term leaders like Helen Clark, Jim
Bolger and John Key, the average tenure for our major party leaders in the last
30 years has been just under three years. A similar comparison with Australian
major party leaders in the same period, excluding the long term of John Howard,
shows an average tenure of just over three years - slightly higher than the New
Zealand figure. All of which, perhaps, does not bode too well for either
Jacinda Ardern or Simon Bridges.
The
one difference between the two countries is that leadership coups are generally
more likely in New Zealand when a Party is in Opposition. In Australia, of
late, the opposite has been the case. In New Zealand, pre-election leadership
coups have produced mixed results, but in Australia they are slightly more
likely to have a positive result, as Julia Gillard's 2010 and Malcolm
Turnbull's 2016 election wins show. In that sense, Scott Morrison still has
something to play for.
What
is clear though is that the public on both sides of the Tasman is much more
sanguine. While the politicians become extremely exercised by the drama and
pressure of coups, the public generally appears better able to take them in its
stride.
While
it is fashionable at present to tease our Australian neighbours about their
current political antics, the record suggests it is not something we can rely
upon for too long. We are pretty good at it too - and our time will definitely
come again. On the basis of the record, almost certainly by early 2021.
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