The Prime Minister returns
from her maternity leave today, but not to lead the same government she was
just a few weeks ago. Over recent weeks, the Labour/New Zealand First
coalition, supported by the Greens, has undergone a subtle but perceptible
change.
This has come about because
of a combination of circumstances. The most obvious of these has been the
performance of the Deputy Prime Minister as acting Prime Minister. Notwithstanding
much earlier critical speculation about how Mr Peters would handle the role,
the transition and his performance have been seamless, a combination of
uncharacteristic under-statement but firmness nonetheless which, in a
backhanded way, has reinforced his authority.
A government that was looking
all at sea and somewhat vague and indecisive when it came to overall leadership
a few weeks ago now seems, while not out of those waters completely by any
means, to have a little more cohesion and purpose about it. Generally,
Ministers have appeared more on track than earlier, and their previous almost
monotonous propensity to contradict each other in public has reduced
substantially. Now, all this may be nothing to do with Mr Peters, and may just
be a consequence of the government - now a quarter of the way through its term
- at last finding its feet. It is possible, but unlikely. The measured and less
"golly gosh" bumbling approach Mr Peters provided has had a flow-on
effect across the team as a whole, reflecting his guile and experience.
At the same time, the
government has been able to make progress on its policy agenda - even some of
the more controversial aspects. A new Defence Review has been released, the
confirmation of the replacement aircraft for the P3 Orions has been finalised,
and the Provincial Growth Fund continues to spurt out its largesse capriciously
on favoured parts of the country. Significantly, these are all initiatives from
New Zealand First Ministers, and just as significantly, Labour flagships like
Kiwibuild and the review of the health services continue to wallow and appear
bogged down.
The Greens have been largely
marginalised during this time - left to deal with potential time-bombs like the
steep pending rise in landfill charges and the phase out of single trip plastic
shopping bags. These are the sorts of worthy issues that can turn quickly from
having general public support to having an unwelcome nanny-state flavour once
the detail is rolled out, and the well-meaning Ministers promoting them reduced
to looking like no more than intrusive, meddling busy bodies as a consequence.
When the Prime Minister went
on maternity leave, the expectation was that Labour heavyweights like Grant
Robertson and David Parker would act as Mr Peters' minders, to make sure he did
not step out of line. Well, Mr Robertson has remained the most affable but
invisible Minister of Finance in more than 50 years, and Mr Parker has also
disappeared from the public view. While his own performance has been atypically
low-key, Mr Peters has shown he can be a relatively safe pair of hands after
all, if the situation warrants it, and that he does not need the guidance of
others. In fact, most Ministers have kept their heads down in this time, and
the government has appeared better for it, in stark contrast to the
freewheeling chaos of the preceding few months. It may just be that the recent mid-year
Parliamentary recess and the school holidays kept them away from the negative
headlines, and all the familiar snafus will return now these are over. Yet it
may also be that there has been a little more focus from the top and direct
leadership in recent weeks.
Whatever the explanation,
things have changed. Mr Peters' performance has dumbfounded many of his
critics. In so doing, he has reinforced his importance to the government.
Indeed, he observed recently that coalition mathematics mean that he and New
Zealand First (still the same thing even after 25 years) are worth far more to
the government than their 7% election vote share suggests. He is right and his
tenure as acting Prime Minister reinforced that.
All of which makes for an
interesting transition now the Prime Minister has returned. Given his
performance over the last few weeks and in the face of the continued absence
and apparent unwillingness of senior Labour Ministers to play their part in the
leadership and management of the government, the Deputy Prime Minister will
consider, with some justification, that he should play a much more prominent
role in the leadership and direction of the government.
For her part, the Prime
Minister will have little alternative but to accept that assistance, and
attempt to make the best of it. Meanwhile, the wily Deputy Prime Minister will
continue to smile enigmatically and no less smugly than before, because the
transition of this administration from Labour-led to really a New Zealand
First/Labour Government, what the last few weeks have actually been all about, has
now been completed.
A well reasoned comment about the state of the Government. Now if only the business sector would get over its sulk and conentrate on doing business we would all be better off.
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